FXUS64 KTSA 040448

AFDTSA



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Tulsa OK

1148 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 

Updated at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



 - Gusty south winds and warm temperatures continue Monday.



 - Thunderstorm chances return by Monday evening through Tuesday

   night. Some severe weather potential will exist Monday night 

   and Tuesday.



 - Below normal temperatures briefly return mid-week.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Through Monday)

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



Gusty south winds will continue Monday, along with above normal

temperatures. Afternoon highs will generally be in the upper 70s

to lower 80s despite increasing high level cloudiness. Dew points

will also steadily increase as low level moisture increases during

the day.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Monday Night through Sunday)

Issued at 1135 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Monday evening into early

Tuesday, with the best chances across far northeast Oklahoma where

elevated convection may develop. If storms do occur here, elevated

instability will be sufficient for some hail. Isolated storms may

also develop late Monday afternoon or evening along the dryline

across southwest Oklahoma, with some potential for these storms to

move into parts of southeast Oklahoma by late Monday evening as

they weaken.



A strong cold front will move across the area late Monday night

and Tuesday, with additional shower and storm development possible

near the boundary, especially late Tuesday afternoon and evening

from far southeast Oklahoma into western Arkansas. This will be

the most likely location for a severe storm Tuesday. Additional

elevated showers and storms may develop north of the boundary and

persist into Wednesday before ending.



Much colder temperatures will prevail north of the frontal

boundary Tuesday and Wednesday, followed by a warming trend

beginning Thursday. Temperatures will warm back above normal by

Friday into next weekend. Rain chances will return next weekend,

with a hint at MCS potential at that time with west to northwest

upper level flow continuing. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(00Z TAFS)

Issued at 628 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026



Increasing high clouds and continued breezy southerly winds are

expected through tonight over the CWA. Stronger winds aloft will

create low level wind shear for all TAF sites tonight into Monday

morning. During the day Monday, continued high clouds along with

additional few/scattered mid clouds developing mid/late afternoon

are forecast. Southerly winds increase again Monday with gusts of

20-30KT common. VFR conditions persist through the TAF period. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

TUL   62  83  63  70 /   0   0  30  10 

FSM   58  82  64  81 /   0   0  40  30 

MLC   60  82  67  80 /   0   0  20  10 

BVO   59  83  59  65 /   0  10  30  20 

FYV   57  80  60  75 /   0  10  60  60 

BYV   60  79  60  72 /   0  10  70  80 

MKO   60  81  64  78 /   0   0  40  20 

MIO   60  79  59  67 /   0  10  60  50 

F10   60  81  65  77 /   0   0  30  10 

HHW   56  80  68  83 /   0   0  10  10 



&&



.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

OK...None.

AR...None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...05

LONG TERM....05

AVIATION...20