FXUS64 KSJT 250843 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 343 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Marginal risk of severe storms this afternoon east of an Abilene to San Angelo to Sonora line. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 243 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 The large complex of showers and thunderstorms has exited our area as of 3 AM. The upper low responsible for all of this is currently spinning over eastern New Mexico. The low will move slowly eastward across the Texas Panhandle and into Oklahoma by this evening. Another shortwave rounding the base of the low will move across our area this afternoon. A moist/modestly unstable atmosphere will remain in place and with the aid of the shortwave aloft, scattered showers and thunderstorms may redevelop again this afternoon. CAMs are split on just how much activity we'll see this afternoon given the atmosphere is fairly worked over from this now exiting round of storms. Nevertheless, will carry highest PoPs across our eastern counties for this afternoon with rain chances tapering off the further west you go. A few of these storms could be strong to severe given steep lapse rates aloft and shear values of 30-40 knots. Otherwise, temperatures will warm into the upper 70s with some partial clearing in the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 The upper-level low moving across northern Texas and Oklahoma this weekend will track eastward and exit the region by Monday morning. The next upper-level disturbance will drop down from the Northern Plains during the first half of next week, reaching Eastern Texas by Wednesday morning. A cold front will move through the area ahead of this system from North to South Monday night into Tuesday, bringing some cooler temperatures and drier conditions Tuesday through Friday next week. For Monday, highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows in the 50s. For Tuesday through Saturday, Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with the coolest day being Wednesday, and overnight lows generally in the 40s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 The main line of thunderstorms has moved out of the area. Showers remain behind the main line at our southeastern TAF sites. Low clouds will develop overnight, bringing MVFR and IFR conditions this morning. There is potential for patchy fog development and localized LIFR conditions this morning, however confidence is too low to include in the TAFs right now. Additional thunderstorm development will be possible later this morning and afternoon. The best chance for storms in our area will be at KJCT and KBBD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 56 81 59 / 40 10 0 0 San Angelo 78 52 82 56 / 30 0 0 0 Junction 81 54 84 54 / 40 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 54 80 54 / 60 10 0 0 Sweetwater 73 54 81 58 / 30 10 0 0 Ozona 78 52 83 55 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 78 56 79 56 / 60 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...AP