FXUS64 KSJT 250538

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

1238 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Severe storms expected afternoon into early Saturday morning 

  for all of West Central Texas. 

  

- Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across all of West Central

  Texas this afternoon and tonight. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Saturday)

Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025



Strong to severe storms have already developed to the west of the

Concho Valley early this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch 

is in effect for most of west central Texas through 7 PM this 

evening. The thunderstorms to our west are expected to continue to

grow in coverage and strength through the rest of the afternoon 

as the move into our area. All severe types are possible, with the

main concerns being large hail and damaging winds. However, low 

level helicity, especially in our southern counties is high 

enough to warrant a concern for isolated tornadoes. In addition to

severe thunderstorm concerns, much of the activity will also 

contain heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding may be 

possible. Expect initially discrete supercells/clusters to grow 

upscale into one or two lines of storms later tonight. The entire 

line or lines will move quickly east, increasing the chance for 

severe wind gusts. Although storms are already approaching our 

western counties, do expect the bulk of the activity to make 

significant progress into our area until 5 or 6 PM tonight, with 

the entire line or lines moving east out of our area by 2 or 3 AM 

tonight. Skies should start mostly cloudy tomorrow, with some 

lingering showers or storms possible for areas east of a 

Sweetwater to Sonora line, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 

60s. Otherwise, we should see clearing skies throughout the day, 

with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday through Friday)

Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



The upper-level low moving across northern Texas and Oklahoma 

this weekend will track eastward and exit the region by Monday

morning. The next upper-level disturbance will drop down from the

Northern Plains during the first half of next week, reaching

Eastern Texas by Wednesday morning. A cold front will move 

through the area ahead of this system from North to South Monday 

night into Tuesday, bringing some cooler temperatures and drier

conditions Tuesday through Friday next week. For Monday, highs 

will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows in the 50s. For 

Tuesday through Saturday, Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s,

with the coolest day being Wednesday, and overnight lows 

generally in the 40s.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1222 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025



The main line of thunderstorms has moved out of the area. Showers

remain behind the main line at our southeastern TAF sites. Low

clouds will develop overnight, bringing MVFR and IFR conditions

this morning. There is potential for patchy fog development and

localized LIFR conditions this morning, however confidence is too

low to include in the TAFs right now. Additional thunderstorm 

development will be possible later this morning and afternoon. The

best chance for storms in our area will be at KJCT and KBBD. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     75  56  81  59 /  40  10   0   0 

San Angelo  78  52  82  56 /  30   0   0   0 

Junction    81  54  84  54 /  40   0   0   0 

Brownwood   77  54  80  54 /  60  10   0   0 

Sweetwater  73  54  81  58 /  30  10   0   0 

Ozona       78  52  83  55 /  10   0   0   0 

Brady       78  56  79  56 /  60  10   0   0 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...20

LONG TERM....TP

AVIATION...AP