FXUS64 KSJT 250504 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1204 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Severe storms expected afternoon into early Saturday morning for all of West Central Texas. - Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across all of West Central Texas this afternoon and tonight. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Saturday) Issued at 1242 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Strong to severe storms have already developed to the west of the Concho Valley early this afternoon. A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect for most of west central Texas through 7 PM this evening. The thunderstorms to our west are expected to continue to grow in coverage and strength through the rest of the afternoon as the move into our area. All severe types are possible, with the main concerns being large hail and damaging winds. However, low level helicity, especially in our southern counties is high enough to warrant a concern for isolated tornadoes. In addition to severe thunderstorm concerns, much of the activity will also contain heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding may be possible. Expect initially discrete supercells/clusters to grow upscale into one or two lines of storms later tonight. The entire line or lines will move quickly east, increasing the chance for severe wind gusts. Although storms are already approaching our western counties, do expect the bulk of the activity to make significant progress into our area until 5 or 6 PM tonight, with the entire line or lines moving east out of our area by 2 or 3 AM tonight. Skies should start mostly cloudy tomorrow, with some lingering showers or storms possible for areas east of a Sweetwater to Sonora line, with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Otherwise, we should see clearing skies throughout the day, with highs in the mid 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1201 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 The upper-level low moving across northern Texas and Oklahoma this weekend will track eastward and exit the region by Monday morning. The next upper-level disturbance will drop down from the Northern Plains during the first half of next week, reaching Eastern Texas by Wednesday morning. A cold front will move through the area ahead of this system from North to South Monday night into Tuesday, bringing some cooler temperatures and drier conditions Tuesday through Friday next week. For Monday, highs will be in the upper 70s to mid 80s, with lows in the 50s. For Tuesday through Saturday, Highs will be in the mid 60s to mid 70s, with the coolest day being Wednesday, and overnight lows generally in the 40s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 635 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Band of showers and thunderstorms from Ozona to Brady to Brownwood at 1130Z will move eastward this evening, KSOA, KBBD and KJCT will see temporary visibilities down to IFR in very heavy rainfall at times this evening. KSOA potentially may see some hail. Another band of thunderstorms may also affect KSOA and KJCT 6-9Z. KABI and KSJT, behind the line, will likely see MVFR visibilites in rain showers with occasional thunder through 3Z this evening as the showers dissipate. Later tonight, skies may temporarily clear out overnight, but IFR to MVFR ceilings develop late night and toward morning. Stratus should dissipate late morning/midday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 56 81 59 / 40 10 0 0 San Angelo 78 52 82 56 / 30 0 0 0 Junction 81 54 84 54 / 40 0 0 0 Brownwood 77 54 80 54 / 60 10 0 0 Sweetwater 73 54 81 58 / 30 10 0 0 Ozona 78 52 83 55 / 10 0 0 0 Brady 78 56 79 56 / 60 10 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...20 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...04