FXUS64 KSJT 241718 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1218 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Slight risk of severe thunderstorms Friday afternoon into early Saturday morning for all of West Central Texas. - Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall across all of West Central Texas Friday, mainly for Friday afternoon and Friday night. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 216 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 The short term forecast remains on track. Early this morning, an upper level low was spinning near the Four Corners. A potent shortwave trough spinning around the low is currently over northern Mexico. Closer to home scattered light showers continue to stream eastward across the area early this morning. Additional scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm will continue through the afternoon hours as weak upper level impulses move overhead. Still looks like the main activity though- with a risk of severe weather and excessive rainfall- will occur from the late afternoon into the evening/early morning hours. Models and CAMs continue to develop a large complex of thunderstorms to our west across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos by the late afternoon...as the shortwave trough approaches and large scale forcing for ascent increases. A large MCS then tracks eastward across most of West Central Texas in the evening. SPC has our entire area highlighted for a slight risk of severe weather. Damaging winds would appear to the primary hazard especially if an MCS materializes. However, we cannot rule out a tornado or two with any supercells out ahead of and/or embedded along the MCS given the favorable shear parameters in place. In addition to the severe threat, most of our area is also under a slight risk of excessive rainfall. The forecast still calls for widespread 1-2 inch rainfall amounts, with some locations possibly seeing as much as 2-3 inches. Given the progressive nature of this system, have opted not to issue a flash flood watch but will be monitoring trends closely as we go through the afternoon. Most of the showers and thunderstorms look to clear our area by around 2-3 AM, but will keep a chance of PoPs going through the overnight hours. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday night through next Friday) Issued at 1217 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Look for quiet and cooler and dry weather next week. A cold front will move through the area Monday and Monday night. Expect cooler temperatures Tuesday through Friday. Highs will be in the 70s with overnight lows in the 40s. For Sunday and Monday, highs will be in the upper 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue this morning and into the afternoon mainly across the Big Country and Concho Valley. A more substantial threat for thunderstorms is still expected by the late afternoon/evening as a complex of storms develops to our west across the Permian Basin and Trans Pecos and moves eastward into our area. Will include prevailing TSRA at all terminals beginning at 23Z. These storms will have the potential to be severe, with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated tornado or two. Storms should exit our area by 07-08Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 59 76 56 81 / 90 40 10 0 San Angelo 57 78 54 83 / 90 30 0 0 Junction 60 83 56 84 / 90 40 10 0 Brownwood 58 78 55 81 / 90 60 10 0 Sweetwater 57 74 55 82 / 80 30 0 0 Ozona 59 79 53 83 / 90 20 0 0 Brady 60 78 57 80 / 90 50 10 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....21 AVIATION...42