FXUS64 KSJT 211836

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

136 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



...New LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Daily, and potentially Monthly, record high temperatures will

  likely be tied or broken through the weekend, with highs

  approaching or reaching 100 degrees. This will increase the risk

  of heat related illnesses.



- Elevated fire weather conditions are forecast across all of West

  Central Texas today. Elevated to Critical fire weather

  conditions are likely on Sunday. This will bring the potential

  for rapidly spreading wildfires. 



- A cold front will bring cooler temperatures for Monday, with

  above normal temperatures returning by mid week. 

  



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Sunday)

Issued at 1227 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Early this afternoon, satellite imagery shows clear skies across the 

region while surface observations are showing that the forecast is 

on track for the unusually hot (for March), likely record-breaking 

temperatures for today. As of 12pm, temperatures are already in 

the mid 80s to low 90s. The daily record highs for today Abilene 

and San Angelo are 98 and 95 respectively. All-time highs for the 

month of March for Abilene and San Angelo are 98 for both sites. 

Potentially we could reach 100 at one or both locations, which 

would be the earliest either location has reached 100 degrees in 

any calendar year, and also the only time either location will 

have recorded temperatures reaching the century mark in the month 

of March.



A surface and short-wave trough aloft developing tonight across 

the Central and Southern Plains will help induce a stronger 

surface pressure gradient and also a stronger nocturnal low-level 

jet. This will result in gusty south to southwest winds tonight 

through tomorrow afternoon in the 20-25 mph range. The low level 

jet will support some stronger gusts of 35 mph mixing to the 

surface, mainly during the late morning and afternoon Sunday. The

winds will also keep lows tonight on the milder side, with lows 

in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Meanwhile, a cold front will be 

approaching from the north tomorrow afternoon. A still strong 850 

mb thermal ridge and compressional warming ahead of the cold front

will make for another hot day tomorrow, with highs in the mid 90s

to low 100s. Skies will remain clear. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday night through next Saturday)

Issued at 134 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



A surface cold front will move through the area Sunday night and 

early Monday, which will bring some relief to the unseasonably 

hot temperatures the past few days. High temperatures behind the 

front Monday afternoon will range from the upper 70s across the 

Big Country, to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere. 



The cooler temperatures will be short lived however, as a strong

ridge of high pressure over the Desert Southwest builds eastward 

into Texas through mid week. This will result in dry and

unseasonably warm temperatures once again Tuesday through 

Thursday. Highs Tuesday will be in the upper 80s and lower 90s, 

warming into the low to upper 90s for Wednesday and Thursday, 

coolest across southern sections. Models show another cold front 

by Friday, with cooler temperatures for the start of next 

weekend.





&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1216 PM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



VFR conditions will continue through 18Z Sunday. Breezy S to SW 

winds of around 8-12 KT will continue through around 03Z Sunday.

03Z- 18Z Sunday, S to SW winds and VFR conditions will continue 

through 18Z Sunday. Breezy S to SW winds of around 8-12 KT will 

continue through around 03Z Sunday. 03Z- 18Z Sunday, S to SW winds

increase to generally around 15-20 KT with gusts of 25+ KT over 

much of the region. Locations where surface winds are lighter 

(such as KJCT and KSOA) will see LLWS due to S to SW 35-40 KT 

winds aloft at 1000-2000 ft AGL. Winds increase to generally 

around 15-20 KT with gusts of 25+ KT over much of the region. 

Locations where surface winds are lighter (such as KJCT and KSOA) 

will see LLWS due to S to SW 35-40 KT winds aloft at 1000-2000 ft 

AGL. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     67  99  56  80 /   0   0   0   0 

San Angelo  63  97  54  87 /   0   0   0   0 

Junction    57  94  53  89 /   0   0   0   0 

Brownwood   58  96  53  83 /   0   0   0   0 

Sweetwater  67 100  56  80 /   0   0   0   0 

Ozona       58  93  56  87 /   0   0   0   0 

Brady       63  93  56  84 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SJH

LONG TERM....24

AVIATION...SJH