FXUS64 KSJT 201709 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot and humid conditions return for Sunday and Monday, with heat index values again climbing to near or above the 105 mark in some areas. A Heat Advisory may be needed. - Low chances (<30%) for scattered storms Monday night across the Big Country. Locally gusty winds and heavy rainfall will be the main concerns. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 A small scale low pressure aloft (MCV) is evident in satellite imagery to the south of Junction as of 1:30 AM CDT. This disturbance has supported scattered thunderstorm development to the southeast of Junction. Most of the model guidance continues to depict this disturbance moving off to the north and northeast. We may see some of the scattered thunderstorms eventually drift into our area along the I-10 corridor near Junction as well as areas northeast of there towards San Saba. Chances are low (30%) across those locations given the bulk of the activity should be off to our southeast. Ample moisture and slow storm motions will allow for some risk of localized flooding to occur for any cells that do move into our area. The Weather Prediction Center has this portion of our area outlooked in a Marginal Risk (5 to 15% chance) for excessive rainfall that leads to flash flooding. Otherwise, most locations north of a San Angelo to Brady line should remain dry today. Highs will continue to rise with most locations settling into the upper 80s to middle 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Friday) Issued at 1229 AM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Main weather story will be the return of the hot and humid conditions for at least Sunday and Monday, as the upper level ridge remains in control across the area. Model blends show highs inching above the 100 degree mark across the western third of the area for Sunday and western half of the area by Monday. Evapotranspiration from the rain on Saturday (and the fairly wet last month) will again help keep low level moisture in place. Forecasted heat index values again climb to near or above the 105 mark across at least much of the Big Country and Concho Valley, and perhaps east into the Heartland again as well. Upper level ridge builds across the Southwest US for mid week, creating a little more northwest flow aloft. Shortwave dropping through may be enough to help trigger more convection across Oklahoma and the Panhandle, with either the convection itself or associated outflow boundaries pushing south across the Red River into the Big Country to trigger more convection. Best POPs are Monday night into Tuesday morning, and then again Tuesday night into Wednesday morning with low to medium chances in place (20-40%) for areas north of I-20. Temperatures remain hot through the rest of the week, but models do suggest a little drying as wet soils dry out. This may be enough to drop heat index values back down to roughly match actual temperatures and below heat advisory criteria. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1209 PM CDT Sat Jun 20 2026 Generally VFR conditions are expected this afternoon with southerly winds around 10KT. A brief shower or thunderstorm could occur near Junction and/or Brady, but confidence was low so this was not included in either TAF site. Ragged MVFR ceilings should develop late tonight between 08-12Z for southern terminals then should improve by around 15Z tomorrow. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 97 78 100 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 73 97 76 101 / 0 0 0 0 Junction 72 93 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 Brownwood 73 95 77 98 / 0 0 0 0 Sweetwater 74 102 77 103 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 72 93 75 96 / 0 0 0 0 Brady 72 92 75 95 / 0 0 0 0 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...41 LONG TERM....07 AVIATION...SK