FXUS64 KSJT 200508 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1208 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Strong winds of 50 to 60 mph also possible. - Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorm were developing early this afternoon...with surface heating and as a weak disturbance aloft moved west across South Texas. Activity was developing a couple hours earlier than the short term convective models indicated, so increased showers and thunderstorm chances across West Central Texas this afternoon into early evening. Precipital water values are 1.5 to 1.8 inches, so localized tropical like downpours possible with little or very slow movement with storms. A similar atmospheric setup in store for Wednesday, but a weak cold front will be moving slowly into the region during the morning. A few storms possible in the morning, but the better chance will be in the afternoon with surface heating. Best rain chances will be south of I-20. The front will have minimal affect on temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Again, a tropical-like atmosphere will be in place Wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall and strong winds near storms. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 1208 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 West central Texas should remain on the southeast side of an upper- level ridge over the Four Corners region for at least Thursday and Friday. Weak upper-level disturbances should rotate around the periphery of this ridge over a persistent moist airmass. This means that chances for afternoon popcorn-style showers and thunderstorms should continue for Thursday and Friday, mainly for southern counties. High temperatures will continue to be around normal, or generally in the mid to upper 90s each day. The pattern will begin to shift for Saturday and Sunday as models show a strengthening upper-level low over the Great Lakes and eastern Canada. This should bring a drier airmass with northerly mid-level winds into the area and effectively shut off rain chances for this weekend. Looking further ahead, models are in overall agreement of this feature elongating and swinging southward into the eastern and central US by Sunday evening. If this comes to fruition, it would push a surface cold front and a strong surface high pressure area through the central Plains and Mississippi Valley by Monday. Depending on how far south this front progresses, there is some potential for heavy rain and cooler than normal temperatures for early next week. For now, this situation will be monitored closely over the next few days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 610 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Afternoon showers and thunderstorms should dissipate through 02Z. Otherwise, light and variable winds with VFR conditions are anticipated overnight. After 12Z Wednesday, a southward-moving frontal boundary will result in wind shifts out of the north and northeast for all TAF sites between 15-20Z. Chances for more showers and storms will increase through the day, especially after 18Z and along this front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 96 72 96 72 / 40 20 20 10 San Angelo 95 71 95 70 / 40 30 40 10 Junction 98 70 95 69 / 40 30 60 30 Brownwood 96 71 95 71 / 50 30 40 10 Sweetwater 96 72 97 71 / 40 20 20 10 Ozona 95 69 94 68 /40 30 60 20 Brady 95 71 93 71 / 40 30 50 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....SK AVIATION...SK