FXUS64 KSJT 191859 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 159 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Strong winds to 50 mph also possible. - Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorm were developing early this afternoon...with surface heating and as a weak disturbance aloft moved west across South Texas. Activity was developing a couple hours earlier than the short term convective models indicated, so increased showers and thunderstorm chances across West Central Texas this afternoon into early evening. Precipital water values are 1.5 to 1.8 inches, so localized tropical like downpours possible with little or very slow movement with storms. A similar atmospheric setup in store for Wednesday, but a weak cold front will be moving slowly into the region during the morning. A few storms possible in the morning, but the better chance will be in the afternoon with surface heating. Best rain chances will be south of I-20. The front will have minimal affect on temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Again, a tropical-like atmosphere will be in place Wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall and strong winds near storms. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 139 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 The axis of the upper level ridge will remain centered over the Four Corners on Thursday keeping west central Texas in northeast flow aloft. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Thursday afternoon as another shortwave dives down into west Texas. The upper ridge builds a little further eastward on Friday and into the weekend. Highest PoPs on Friday (20-30%) will be confined mainly to the northwest Hill Country and northern Edwards Plateau. Mainly dry conditions will prevail over the weekend, with rain chances confined to our far southern counties. The pattern could become more active early next week as the ridge breaks down and a cold front moves into the Red River Valley. Temperatures Thursday through Sunday will generally be in the mid 90s, with some upper 90s in the Concho Valley Big Country. Early next week temperatures are forecast to drop into the lower 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms were developing at 17Z, and expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Central Texas with additional heating. Included tempo or prob30 thunder across the terminals through 00Z. Wind gusts to 25 KTS are likely near storms, with higher gusts possible. Visibility reductions to MVFR and briefly IFR possible in heavy rainfall. IFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 96 72 97 / 20 30 20 20 San Angelo 72 96 70 95 / 20 40 30 40 Junction 69 97 70 95 / 20 30 30 50 Brownwood 73 95 71 95 / 20 50 30 40 Sweetwater 75 96 72 97 / 20 40 20 20 Ozona 70 95 70 94 / 20 40 30 50 Brady 72 94 71 93 / 20 40 30 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....42 AVIATION...04