FXUS64 KSJT 191800 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 100 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Thunderstorms could produce locally heavy rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. Strong winds to 50 mph also possible. - Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 1244 PM CDT Tueand perhaps focus development. Aug 19 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorm were developing early this afternoon...with surface heating and as a weak disturbance aloft moved west across South Texas. Activity was developing a couple hours earlier than the short term convective models indicated, so increased showers and thunderstorm chances across West Central Texas this afternoon into early evening. Precipital water values are 1.5 to 1.8 inches, so localized tropical like downpours possible with little or very slow movement with storms. A similar atmospheric setup in store for Wednesday, but a weak cold front will be moving slowly into the region during the morning. A few storms possible in the morning, but the better chance will be in the afternoon with surface heating. Best rain chances will be south of I-20. The front will have minimal affect on temperatures, with highs in the mid and upper 90s. Again, a tropical-like atmosphere will be in place Wednesday, with localized heavy rainfall and strong winds near storms. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 An unsettled pattern will remain in place through the early part of next week, with increased rain chances in the forecast from Wednesday through Friday. A weak cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning, causing a wind shift and helping showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. The main hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy rainfall from slowly moving storms which could potentially cause flooding. Rain chances will decrease slightly Thursday after the front moves through, with the highest chances remaining across our southeastern counties. We will have a better idea on potential locations of the heavier rainfall as we get closer and high-res models become available. Generally, the upper-level high will shift west and remain over the four corners region through this weekend, making way for a series of upper-level disturbances to traverse the area on the eastern periphery of the upper-level high and over West Central Texas. These disturbances along with a continued influx of tropical moisture from the south to southeast will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon and evening through early next week. Only isolated storms expected early next week, mainly along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of year (in the mid to upper 90s) with a slight drop in temperature behind the front, resulting in highs on Thursday to drop into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms were developing at 17Z, and expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Central Texas with additional heating. Included tempo or prob30 thunder across the terminals through 00Z. Wind gusts to 25 KTS are likely near storms, with higher gusts possible. Visibility reductions to MVFR and briefly IFR possible in heavy rainfall. IFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 75 96 72 97 / 20 30 20 20 San Angelo72 96 70 95 / 20 40 30 40 Junction 69 97 70 95 / 20 30 30 50 Brownwood 73 95 71 95 / 20 50 30 40 Sweetwater 75 96 72 97 / 20 40 20 20 Ozona 70 95 70 94 / 20 40 30 50 Brady 72 94 71 93 / 20 40 30 50 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...04