FXUS64 KSJT 191736 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1236 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated showers and thunderstorms - Seasonably hot temperatures are expected this week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Friday, with the highest rain chances Wednesday and Thursday. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Updated to include 30 to 40 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms across much of West Central Texas this afternoon, and isolated early evening. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 105 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 The area will remain in weak northeasterly flow aloft today, with ridging just west of the area. At the surface, we will have weak easterly winds, with dewpoint values in the 60s to near 70 degrees. In this weakly capped environment with plenty of moisture to utilize, we will again see isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms from the afternoon into the evening hours. Although the entire area has a chance to see activity, the best chances are generally south of I-20, and most locations won't actually see rainfall. Highs will be similar to the last few days in the 90s to near 100 in isolated locations. Expect the convective activity to end during the evening hours with loss of daytime heating and instability. Lows will continue to be mainly in the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1212 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 An unsettled pattern will remain in place through the early part of next week, with increased rain chances in the forecast from Wednesday through Friday. A weak cold front will move through the area Wednesday morning, causing a wind shift and helping showers and thunderstorms develop across the area. The main hazards will be frequent lightning, gusty winds, and localized heavy rainfall from slowly moving storms which could potentially cause flooding. Rain chances will decrease slightly Thursday after the front moves through, with the highest chances remaining across our southeastern counties. We will have a better idea on potential locations of the heavier rainfall as we get closer and high-res models become available. Generally, the upper-level high will shift west and remain over the four corners region through this weekend, making way for a series of upper-level disturbances to traverse the area on the eastern periphery of the upper-level high and over West Central Texas. These disturbances along with a continued influx of tropical moisture from the south to southeast will keep showers and thunderstorms in the forecast each afternoon and evening through early next week. Only isolated storms expected early next week, mainly along the I-10 corridor. Temperatures will remain near normal for this time of year (in the mid to upper 90s) with a slight drop in temperature behind the front, resulting in highs on Thursday to drop into the low to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1228 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Isolated showers and thunderstorms were developing at 17Z, and expect scattered showers and thunderstorms across West Central Texas with additional heating. Included tempo or prob30 thunder across the terminals through 00Z. Wind gusts to 25 KTS are likely near storms, with higher gusts possible. Visibility reductions to MVFR and briefly IFR possible in heavy rainfall. IFR conditions are expected outside of thunderstorm development. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 99 75 96 72 / 30 20 30 20 San Angelo 97 72 96 70 / 40 20 40 30 Junction 98 69 97 70 / 40 20 30 30 Brownwood 98 73 95 71 / 30 20 50 30 Sweetwater 99 75 96 72 / 30 20 40 20Ozona 95 70 95 70 / 40 20 40 30 Brady 96 72 94 71 / 30 20 40 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...04 LONG TERM....TP AVIATION...04