FXUS64 KSJT 190528

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

1228 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



...New LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- A warming trend will continue through the remainder of the week

  especially during the weekend.



- Record high temperatures will likely be tied or broken Friday

  through Sunday.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Thursday)

Issued at 1245 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026



A strong upper level high, centered over the Desert Southwest, will 

remain in place tonight and Thursday with our area on its eastern 

periphery. South-southwest winds will continue across the area 

tonight and Thursday. A warming trend in temperatures is underway 

and will continue on Thursday, as low-level thermal ridge 

strengthens to our west. Skies will be mostly clear tonight and 

mostly sunny on Thursday. Lows tonight will be mostly in the mid 40s 

to near 50 in our central and southern counties, with the coolest 

readings in low-lying areas and along river valleys. In the Big 

Country, overnight lows will be mostly in the lower to mid 50s where 

wind speeds will stay a little higher. Highs on Thursday are 

expected to be approximately 8-11 degrees warmer than today, ranging 

from the mid 80s in our southern counties to the lower 90s in much 

of the Big Country. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Friday through Wednesday)

Issued at 1213 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



Record highs expected starting on Friday across West Central Texas

as temperatures soar well into the 90s. A few locations likely to

hit the 100 degree mark for Saturday or Sunday.



No real change in the pattern or in the forecasted temperatures

for the weekend. Low level thermal ridge sets up across a broad 

area from Southwest Oklahoma back across the Big Country and 

Concho Valley and west into the Permian Basin and South Plains.

Center of the upper level ridge shifts east into the Southern

Plains starting today and dominates the forecast through the

weekend.



Could see daily high temperatures fall at both San Angelo and 

Abilene for all 3 days, with statistical data from DESI suggesting

a very high chance (above 80%) of breaking the records for Friday

and Sunday. Saturdays records are a little warmer and the chances

are lower but it still looks possible. Of more interest and as 

noted yesterday, all time March temperatures at both San Angelo 

and Abilene is 98 degrees and this is in real jeopardy. 



Whether we hit the all-time high may well depend on getting a few

extra degrees out of the southwest surface winds during the

afternoon. Southwest winds usually provide a little downslope 

component (not as good as west or northwest winds though). If

these southwest winds persist through 21Z or 22Z, then records 

will fall. If winds shift back south a little earlier in the 

afternoon and cuts off the downslope component, then records may 

hang on.



Cold front arrives late Sunday into Monday morning, providing a

brief respite from the heat. Highs drop 20 degrees or so, although

still at above normal values. Upper ridge and the heat return for

mid week with temperatures bouncing back into the mid 90s.

 

&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1209 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026



VFR conditions are expected for the remainder of the TAF period.

Expect light, southerly winds for most of the day.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     92  58  95  62 /   0   0   0   0 

San Angelo  90  56  94  59 /   0   0   0   0 

Junction    87  51  93  55 /   0   0   0   0 

Brownwood   88  53  93  55 /   0   0   0   0 

Sweetwater  93  59  95  62 /   0   0   0   0 

Ozona       85  53  91  57 /   0   0   0   0 

Brady       86  56  92  60 /   0   0   0   0 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...19

LONG TERM....07

AVIATION...41