FXUS64 KSJT 061054

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

554 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms this morning across 

  the Edwards Plateau and northwest Hill Country.



- Low (20-30%) chances for rain showers and thunderstorms

  Thursday morning, and again on Friday afternoon into Saturday.



- Much cooler temperatures are expected behind a cold front on

  Thursday, followed by warmer temperatures by the weekend. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 138 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



An east-west oriented cold front was located just south of the 

Concho Valley this morning. Behind the front, temperatures were in 

the 50s and 60s under mid-level cloud cover. Storms were expected to 

develop south of this front by sunrise across the Edwards Plateau 

and northwest Hill Country. Hi-res models show these storms moving 

eastward into central Texas by mid-morning as the cold front 

continues southward.



After storms depart the area, a slightly cooler post-frontal 

airmass will be advected in by north winds across the area. Our 

forecast calls for high temperatures in the low to mid 80s, but if

this airmass ends up being colder with stout cloud cover,

temperatures may only reach the mid 70s today. Overnight, an even

cooler airmass will move into west central Texas by a 1023mb high

pressure center over the Panhandle. This will allow low 

temperatures to fall to the 50s. Some rural locations across the 

Big Country could drop into the 40s by sunrise.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Thursday through Tuesday)

Issued at 1219 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



An upper-level trough stretching from the Great Lakes region and 

southwestward will slowly shift eastward, with a closed low 

traversing northern Mexico and tracking into West Texas by the end

of the work week. A couple of shortwave disturbances accompanying

these features will track through the area, bringing some showers

and thunderstorm chances across our southern counties Thursday, 

and more widespread chances Friday afternoon through Saturday 

morning. Rain chances on Friday and Saturday will likely remain 

south of the I-20 corridor. Still looking at another cold front 

for Sunday morning into Sunday evening, which will bring low rain 

chances to the area into Sunday night. Dry and slightly cooler 

weather will follow the front for next Monday.



Highs on Thursday will be slightly lower with the ample cloud

cover lingering across the area. High temperatures on Thursday

will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s, with overnight lows in

the 50s. A warming trend will begin on Friday, with highs in the 

upper 70s to near 90, rising into the mid 80s to mid 90s on

Saturday. The cold front on Sunday will keep temperatures in the

low 80s to low 90s through Monday, with warmer temperatures

potentially in the triple digits across the Big Country Tuesday

and Wednesday next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 554 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026



Ongoing thunderstorms will continue to affect locations such as 

Sonora, Junction and Brady. Impacts to terminals will be in waves

lasting about 30-60 minutes. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will be in 

place for most locations through about 18Z, then improve to VFR.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     51  74  56  85 /   0   0   0  10 

San Angelo  55  72  56  83 /   0  10  20  30 

Junction    59  71  56  80 /  10  40  40  50 

Brownwood   54  71  54  82 /   0   0  10  30 

Sweetwater  51  76  56  88 /   0   0   0  10 

Ozona       58  72  57  81 /  20  30  30  30 

Brady       56  69  56  79 /   0  10  30  40 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SK

LONG TERM....TP

AVIATION...SK