FXUS64 KSJT 060513 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1213 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning, mainly across the northwest Hill Country and I-10 corridor. - Low (20-30%) chances for rain showers and thunderstorms early Thursday morning. - Much cooler temperatures are expected behind a cold front on Thursday, followed by warmer temperatures by the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A cold front has moved into the northern Big Country early this afternoon. Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front, so highs across the Big Country (especially northern portions) will likely occur early this morning. Ahead of the front highs will top out in the mid 90s for most locations this afternoon. The front will then stall across central portions of the area. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s for most locations, with mid to upper 50s across the Big Country. The dryline will advance east, reaching our far eastern counties this afternoon. Although an isolated thunderstorm is possible on the dryline, the cap is forecast to suppress most convection, so no rain chances were included for this afternoon and early evening. Most of the CAMs are indicating isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the dryline after midnight, mainly across our southeast counties. Rain chances are generally in the 20-30% range. Most of the showers and thunderstorms should be east of the area by mid-morning. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a bit tricky. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to slowly lift north as a warm front through the day. This will result in the warmest temperatures occurring across our southern and western counties, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Cooler temperatures are forecast across much of the Big Country and the Heartland, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through next Tuesday) Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 The primary focus in the long term period will initially revolve around a cold front that will move through the area Wednesday night. The front will usher in much cooler temperatures for Thursday, with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms (20 to 40%) for areas south of I-20, with the better chance across southern portions of the forecast area. Breezy north winds will follow the front on Thursday, with highs mainly in the upper 60s and lower 70s. Focus then shifts to the southwest on Friday, as a closed mid level low tracks east/northeast front northern Mexico toward the Big Bend region. As this system approaches, additional showers and storms will be possible Friday night into Saturday for areas generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line. Rain chances will remain low however, generally 15 to 20 percent. Still looking at another cold front for late Sunday into Sunday evening, which will bring low rain chances to the area into Sunday night. Dry and slightly cooler weather will follow the front for next Monday. Highs on Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s across the Big Country, where less cloud cover is expected, to the mid and upper 80s over southern portions of the forecast area. Highs on Sunday will be in the low to mid 90s ahead of the front, cooling into the 80s by Monday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1213 AM CDT Wed May 6 2026 All signs point to thunderstorms developing after about 09Z for locations such as Sonora, Junction and Brady. Impacts to terminals will likely be in waves lasting about 30-60 minutes. Otherwise, MVFR ceilings will be in place for most locations through about 18Z, then improve to VFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 80 51 74 56 / 0 0 0 0 San Angelo 86 55 72 56 / 10 0 10 20 Junction 86 59 71 56 / 30 10 40 40 Brownwood 79 54 71 54 / 10 0 0 10 Sweetwater 85 51 76 56 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 87 58 72 57 / 10 20 30 30 Brady 81 56 69 56 / 20 0 10 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...SK