FXUS64 KSJT 051950

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

250 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...New LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday

  morning, across the northwest Hill Country and I-10 corridor.



- Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday

  morning.



- Much cooler temperatures are expected behind a cold front on

  Thursday, followed by warmer temperatures by the weekend. 





&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Wednesday)

Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



A cold front has moved into the northern Big Country early this

afternoon. Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front, 

so highs across the Big Country (especially northern portions) 

will likely occur early this morning. Ahead of the front highs 

will top out in the mid 90s for most locations this afternoon. The

front will then stall across central portions of the area. 

Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s for most locations, 

with mid to upper 50s across the Big Country. 



The dryline will advance east, reaching our far eastern counties 

this afternoon. Although an isolated thunderstorm is possible on 

the dryline, the cap is forecast to suppress most convection, so 

no rain chances were included for this afternoon and early 

evening. Most of the CAMs are indicating isolated showers and 

thunderstorms developing along the dryline after midnight, mainly 

across our southeast counties. Rain chances are generally in the 

20-30% range. Most of the showers and thunderstorms should be east

of the area by mid-morning. 



Temperatures on Wednesday will be a bit tricky. The aforementioned 

cold front is forecast to slowly lift north as a warm front through 

the day. This will result in the warmest temperatures occurring 

across our southern and western counties, with highs in the mid to 

upper 80s. Cooler temperatures are forecast across much of the Big 

Country and the Heartland, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)

Issued at 244 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026



The primary focus in the long term period will initially revolve

around a cold front that will move through the area Wednesday

night. The front will usher in much cooler temperatures for 

Thursday, with a low chance for showers and thunderstorms (20 to 

40%) for areas south of I-20, with the better chance across 

southern portions of the forecast area. Breezy north winds will 

follow the front on Thursday, with highs mainly in the upper 60s 

and lower 70s. 



Focus then shifts to the southwest on Friday, as a closed mid 

level low tracks east/northeast front northern Mexico toward the 

Big Bend region. As this system approaches, additional showers and

storms will be possible Friday night into Saturday for areas

generally south of a Brownwood to Ozona line. Rain chances will 

remain low however, generally 15 to 20 percent. Still looking at

another cold front for late Sunday into Sunday evening, which 

will bring low rain chances to the area into Sunday night. Dry 

and slightly cooler weather will follow the front for next Monday.



Highs on Saturday will range from the low to mid 90s across the 

Big Country, where less cloud cover is expected, to the mid and 

upper 80s over southern portions of the forecast area. Highs on 

Sunday will be in the low to mid 90s ahead of the front, cooling 

into the 80s by Monday. 



&&



.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFS)

Issued at 1115 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Gusty west winds of 12 to 16 mph will decrease to 12 knots or less

this evening at most of the sites. A cold front will approach KABI

late this afternoon, resulting in gusty north winds of 12 to 15 

mph. Winds will decrease by early evening. Isolated

thunderstorms are possible after08Z at KJCT and KSOA, so have 

included TEMPO groups for thunder. Stratus is also forecast at 

KJCT and KBBD, which will result in MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings 

should return by mid to late morning Wednesday. 



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     58  80  51  73 /  10   0   0  20 

San Angelo  61  86  53  72 /  10   0  10  30 

Junction    65  86  54  69 /  30  10  20  40 

Brownwood   58  81  51  71 /  10  10  10  20 

Sweetwater  59  81  50  75 /   0   0   0  10 

Ozona       64  87  55  71 /  20   0  10  30 

Brady       63  83  53  68 /  20  10  10  30 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Daniels

LONG TERM....24

AVIATION...Daniels