FXUS64 KSJT 051815 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 115 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning, across the northwest Hill Country and I-10 corridor. - Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Wednesday) Issued at 113 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 A cold front has moved into the northern Big Country early this afternoon. Cooler temperatures will filter in behind the front, so highs across the Big Country (especially northern portions) will likely occur early this morning. Ahead of the front highs will top out in the mid 90s for most locations this afternoon. The front will then stall across central portions of the area. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s for most locations, with mid to upper 50s across the Big Country. The dryline will advance east, reaching our far eastern counties this afternoon. Although an isolated thunderstorm is possible on the dryline, the cap is forecast to suppress most convection, so no rain chances were included for this afternoon and early evening. Most of the CAMs are indicating isolated showers and thunderstorms developing along the dryline after midnight, mainly across our southeast counties. Rain chances are generally in the 20-30% range. Most of the showers and thunderstorms should be east of the area by mid-morning. Temperatures on Wednesday will be a bit tricky. The aforementioned cold front is forecast to slowly lift north as a warm front through the day. This will result in the warmest temperatures occurring across our southern and western counties, with highs in the mid to upper 80s. Cooler temperatures are forecast across much of the Big Country and the Heartland, with highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Weak cold front moves through Wednesday, with a stronger cold front building in on Thursday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorm Thursday, mainly south of I-20, with lift over front and an approaching upper shortwave from the west. Models diverge on shower and thunderstorm chance for Friday, with the GFS and NAM indicating the potential for storms, but others bring the upper shortwave well south of the region, keeping conditions dry. Will keep the dry NBM for Friday. Confidence over all is low on rainfall this week. After a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Thursday, temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to mid 90s this weekend. There is a pattern shift from zonal to northwest flow aloft this weekend. There is a low potential for thunderstorm late Sunday, mainly in eastern zones, with a weak cold front and upper shortwave. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Gusty west winds of 12 to 16 mph will decrease to 12 knots or less this evening at most of the sites. A cold front will approach KABI late this afternoon, resulting in gusty north winds of 12 to 15 mph. Winds will decrease by early evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible after 08Z at KJCT and KSOA, so have included TEMPO groups for thunder. Stratus is also forecast at KJCT and KBBD, which will result in MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings should return by mid to late morning Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 58 80 51 73 / 10 0 0 20 San Angelo 61 86 53 72 / 10 0 10 30 Junction 65 86 54 69 / 30 10 20 40 Brownwood 58 81 51 71 / 10 10 10 20 Sweetwater 59 81 50 75 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 64 87 55 71 / 20 0 10 30 Brady 63 83 53 68 / 20 10 10 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...Daniels