FXUS64 KSJT 051706 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1206 PM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday morning, across the northwest Hill Country and I-10 corridor. - Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Early this morning skies were partly cloudy across west central Texas with temperatures around 70. Winds were from the south at 5- 15 MPH with occasional gusts around 25. Quasi-zonal upper-level flow was occurring over the southern Plains. At the surface, a dryline was located from northwest Texas southward to the Permian Basin, while a cold front was located across the central Plains. This cold front will make it's way southward into north Texas today, and reach the Big Country this afternoon. South of this front, the dryline will mix eastward to the northwest Hill Country through the day. High temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s ahead of the front. Southwesterly winds behind the dryline will increase this afternoon with gusts near 30 possible. The front should continue southward this evening and overnight and reach the I-10 corridor late tonight which will turn winds out of the west and northwest. Some instability will exist along and south of the front (about 2000 J/kg of CAPE) overnight. CAMs show the potential for a few thunderstorms to develop across the northwest Hill Country and I-10 corridor after midnight. While overall coverage would be low, any cell that develops could have the potential to produce large hail and damaging winds. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Weak cold front moves through Wednesday, with a stronger cold front building in on Thursday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorm Thursday, mainly south of I-20, with lift over front and an approaching upper shortwave from the west. Models diverge on shower and thunderstorm chance for Friday, with the GFS and NAM indicating the potential for storms, but others bring the upper shortwave well south of the region, keeping conditions dry. Will keep the dry NBM for Friday. Confidence over all is low on rainfall this week. After a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s Thursday, temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to mid 90s this weekend. There is a pattern shift from zonal to northwest flow aloft this weekend. There is a low potential for thunderstorm late Sunday, mainly in eastern zones, with a weak cold front and upper shortwave. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1115 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Gusty west winds of 12 to 16 mph will decrease to 12 knots or less this evening at most of the sites. A cold front will approach KABI late this afternoon, resulting in gusty north winds of 12 to 15 mph. Winds will decrease by early evening. Isolated thunderstorms are possible after 08Z at KJCT and KSOA, so have included TEMPO groups for thunder. Stratus is also forecast at KJCT and KBBD, which will result in MVFR ceilings. VFR ceilings should return by mid to late morning Wednesday. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 58 80 51 73 / 10 0 0 20 San Angelo 61 86 53 72 / 10 0 10 30 Junction 65 86 54 69 / 30 10 20 40 Brownwood 58 81 51 71 / 10 10 10 20 Sweetwater 59 81 50 75 / 0 0 0 10 Ozona 64 87 55 71 / 20 0 10 30 Brady 63 83 53 68 / 20 10 10 30 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...Daniels