FXUS64 KSJT 051143

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

643 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Southerly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH this

  afternoon across the Big Country.



- Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late tonight into Wednesday

  morning, across the northwest Hill Country and I-10 corridor.



- Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday

  morning.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 250 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Early this morning skies were partly cloudy across west central 

Texas with temperatures around 70.  Winds were from the south at 5-

15 MPH with occasional gusts around 25. Quasi-zonal upper-level flow 

was occurring over the southern Plains.  At the surface, a dryline 

was located from northwest Texas southward to the Permian Basin, 

while a cold front was located across the central Plains.  This cold 

front will make it's way southward into north Texas today, and reach 

the Big Country this afternoon.  South of this front, the dryline 

will mix eastward to the northwest Hill Country through the day. 

High temperatures should reach the low to mid 90s ahead of the 

front. Southwesterly winds behind the dryline will increase this

afternoon with gusts near 30 possible. The front should continue 

southward this evening and overnight and reach the I-10 corridor 

late tonight which will turn winds out of the west and northwest. 

Some instability will exist along and south of the front (about 

2000 J/kg of CAPE) overnight. CAMs show the potential for a few 

thunderstorms to develop across the northwest Hill Country and 

I-10 corridor after midnight. While overall coverage would be low,

any cell that develops could have the potential to produce large 

hail and damaging winds.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Weak cold front moves through Wednesday, with a stronger cold 

front building in on Thursday. There is a chance of showers and 

thunderstorm Thursday, mainly south of I-20, with lift over front 

and an approaching upper shortwave from the west. Models diverge 

on shower and thunderstorm chance for Friday, with the GFS and NAM

indicating the potential for storms, but others bring the upper 

shortwave well south of the region, keeping conditions dry. Will 

keep the dry NBM for Friday. Confidence over all is low on 

rainfall this week. 

  

After a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s 

Thursday, temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to mid 90s 

this weekend. There is a pattern shift from zonal to northwest 

flow aloft this weekend. There is a low potential for thunderstorm

late Sunday, mainly in eastern zones, with a weak cold front and 

upper shortwave.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 642 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



MVFR ceilings will continue at Junction and Sonora through about 

15Z with occasional IFR ceilings. Winds at all locations will 

increase by about 15Z and continue through early evening. There is

a low (20%) chance for thunderstorms near Sonora and Junction

between 06-12Z.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     93  60  82  50 /   0  10   0  10 

San Angelo  94  62  88  52 /   0  10   0  10 

Junction    93  66  89  54 /   0  20  10  20 

Brownwood   94  61  84  51 /   0  10  10  10 

Sweetwater  93  62  85  49 /   0  10   0   0 

Ozona       92  64  88  55 /   0  20   0  10 

Brady       92  66  86  53 /   0  20  10  20 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SK

LONG TERM....04

AVIATION...SK