FXUS64 KSJT 050554

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

1254 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



...New LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Southerly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH this

  afternoon across the Big Country.



- Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into 

  Wednesday morning, mainly across the northwest Hill Country.



- Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday

  morning.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(This evening through Tuesday)

Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Unseasonably hot temperatures are still expected across the area 

this afternoon. Highs will top out in the mid 80s to lower 90s for 

most locations, with low to mid 90s across the Big Country. 

Overnight lows will be mild, in the mid 60s to near 70. 



On Tuesday, an upper level trough will track across the Northern 

Plains sending a cold front south into Oklahoma. This front is 

forecast to then stall in the vicinity of the Red River. Previous 

runs of the NAM had brought the front into the Big Country Tuesday 

afternoon, but the NAM is now in agreement with the rest of the 

guidance keeping the front north of the area. Given this set up, 

unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast with highs in the low to 

mid 90s for most locations. A dryline will push east, toward our far 

eastern counties by mid to late afternoon, ushering in gusty west 

winds and drier air. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) of a 

thunderstorm developing along the dryline in our southeast counties. 

If a storm were to develop, it would likely become severe with large 

hail and damaging winds being the main concern.  



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday through Monday)

Issued at 1253 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Weak cold front moves through Wednesday, with a stronger cold 

front building in on Thursday. There is a chance of showers and 

thunderstorm Thursday, mainly south of I-20, with lift over front 

and an approaching upper shortwave from the west. Models diverge 

on shower and thunderstorm chance for Friday, with the GFS and NAM

indicating the potential for storms, but others bring the upper 

shortwave well south of the region, keeping conditions dry. Will 

keep the dry NBM for Friday. Confidence over all is low on 

rainfall this week. 

  

After a cooler day with highs in the upper 60s/lower 70s 

Thursday, temperatures warm back into the upper 80s to mid 90s 

this weekend. There is a pattern shift from zonal to northwest 

flow aloft this weekend. There is a low potential for thunderstorm

late Sunday, mainly in eastern zones, with a weak cold front and 

upper shortwave.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026



Gusty winds are expected to continue overnight for places such as

San Angelo, Sweetwater and Abilene. Winds at all locations will

increase by about 15Z and continue through early evening. MVFR

ceilings will move into Junction and Sonora between 12-15Z with a

low chance of becoming IFR.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     60  82  50  71 /  10   0  10  20 

San Angelo  62  88  52  71 /  10   0  10  20 

Junction    66  89  54  70 /  20  10  20  40 

Brownwood   61  84  51  69 /  10  10  10  20 

Sweetwater  62  85  49  72 /  10   0   0  10 

Ozona       64  88  55  70 /  20   0  10  20 

Brady       66  86  53  68 /  20  10  20  30 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Daniels

LONG TERM....04

AVIATION...SK