FXUS64 KSJT 050543 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1243 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Southerly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH this afternoon across the Big Country. - Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly across the northwest Hill Country. - Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Unseasonably hot temperatures are still expected across the area this afternoon. Highs will top out in the mid 80s to lower 90s for most locations, with low to mid 90s across the Big Country. Overnight lows will be mild, in the mid 60s to near 70. On Tuesday, an upper level trough will track across the Northern Plains sending a cold front south into Oklahoma. This front is forecast to then stall in the vicinity of the Red River. Previous runs of the NAM had brought the front into the Big Country Tuesday afternoon, but the NAM is now in agreement with the rest of the guidance keeping the front north of the area. Given this set up, unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast with highs in the low to mid 90s for most locations. A dryline will push east, toward our far eastern counties by mid to late afternoon, ushering in gusty west winds and drier air. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) of a thunderstorm developing along the dryline in our southeast counties. If a storm were to develop, it would likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 A cold front is expected to drift south across the Big Country Tuesday night and then move slowly south across the remainder of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is a low chance (20 percent or less) for some showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the front over the southeast counties after midnight Tuesday night, through around daybreak Wednesday morning. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms are again possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as the front continues south across the area. Temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s across the Big Country north of the front, to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere. Breezy conditions will occur on Thursday, along with much cooler temperatures behind the front, with highs mainly in the lower 70s. A low confidence forecast continues Friday through the weekend, as models differ regarding the evolution of the upper pattern during this time frame. The current NBM seems reasonable for now, with low rain chances primarily Sunday and Sunday night, as another cold front affects the region. Temperatures gradually warm back into the lower to mid 90s by Sunday, then cool back down into the 80s next Monday behind the front. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1243 AM CDT Tue May 5 2026 Gusty winds are expected to continue overnight for places such as San Angelo, Sweetwater and Abilene. Winds at all locations will increase by about 15Z and continue through early evening. MVFR ceilings will move into Junction and Sonora between 12-15Z with a low chance of becoming IFR. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 93 60 82 50 / 0 10 0 10 San Angelo 94 62 88 52 / 0 10 0 10 Junction 93 66 89 54 / 0 20 10 20 Brownwood 94 61 84 51 / 0 10 10 10 Sweetwater 93 62 85 49 / 0 10 0 0 Ozona 92 64 88 55 / 0 20 0 10 Brady 92 66 86 53 / 0 20 10 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...SK