FXUS64 KSJT 041911 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 211 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Southerly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH this afternoon across the Big Country. - Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly across the northwest Hill Country. - Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Unseasonably hot temperatures are still expected across the area this afternoon. Highs will top out in the mid 80s to lower 90s for most locations, with low to mid 90s across the Big Country. Overnight lows will be mild, in the mid 60s to near 70. On Tuesday, an upper level trough will track across the Northern Plains sending a cold front south into Oklahoma. This front is forecast to then stall in the vicinity of the Red River. Previous runs of the NAM had brought the front into the Big Country Tuesday afternoon, but the NAM is now in agreement with the rest of the guidance keeping the front north of the area. Given this set up, unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast with highs in the low to mid 90s for most locations. A dryline will push east, toward our far eastern counties by mid to late afternoon, ushering in gusty west winds and drier air. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) of a thunderstorm developing along the dryline in our southeast counties. If a storm were to develop, it would likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Monday) Issued at 210 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 A cold front is expected to drift south across the Big Country Tuesday night and then move slowly south across the remainder of the area Wednesday into Wednesday night. There is a low chance (20 percent or less) for some showers and a few thunderstorms ahead of the front over the southeast counties after midnight Tuesday night, through around daybreak Wednesday morning. Low chances for showers and thunderstorms are again possible Wednesday night into Thursday morning, as the front continues south across the area. Temperatures on Wednesday will range from the lower 80s across the Big Country north of the front, to the mid and upper 80s elsewhere. Breezy conditions will occur on Thursday, along with much cooler temperatures behind the front, with highs mainly in the lower 70s. A low confidence forecast continues Friday through the weekend, as models differ regarding the evolution of the upper pattern during this time frame. The current NBM seems reasonable for now, with low rain chances primarily Sunday and Sunday night, as another cold front affects the region. Temperatures gradually warm back into the lower to mid 90s by Sunday, then cool back down into the 80s next Monday behind the front. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Southwest winds of 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, will decrease to 10 knots or less this evening at the southern 3 sites. Winds will remain between 12 and 18 knots, with higher gusts, at KABI and KSJT. Stratus will return to the southern 3 sites by daybreak, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Expect VFR conditions to return by late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 94 61 82 / 0 0 10 0 San Angelo 67 93 61 87 / 0 0 10 0 Junction 65 93 65 89 / 0 0 20 10 Brownwood 66 93 61 83 / 0 0 20 0 Sweetwater 69 93 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 64 91 63 87 / 0 0 10 0 Brady 68 91 64 86 / 0 0 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....24 AVIATION...Daniels