FXUS64 KSJT 041804 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 104 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Southerly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH this afternoon across the Big Country. - Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly across the northwest Hill Country. - Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Unseasonably hot temperatures are still expected across the area this afternoon. Highs will top out in the mid 80s to lower 90s for most locations, with low to mid 90s across the Big Country. Overnight lows will be mild, in the mid 60s to near 70. On Tuesday, an upper level trough will track across the Northern Plains sending a cold front south into Oklahoma. This front is forecast to then stall in the vicinity of the Red River. Previous runs of the NAM had brought the front into the Big Country Tuesday afternoon, but the NAM is now in agreement with the rest of the guidance keeping the front north of the area. Given this set up, unseasonably hot temperatures are forecast with highs in the low to mid 90s for most locations. A dryline will push east, toward our far eastern counties by mid to late afternoon, ushering in gusty west winds and drier air. There is a very low chance (less than 15%) of a thunderstorm developing along the dryline in our southeast counties. If a storm were to develop, it would likely become severe with large hail and damaging winds being the main concern. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Surface trough across North Texas Tuesday into Wednesday will bring southwest to west winds to the region, with a dryline pushing east of an Abilene to Sonora line each day. A weak cold front will moves through Tuesday night with a stronger cold front Wednesday night. This will bring cooler conditions Thursday before a warmup Friday into Saturday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly along and southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Additional thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday with the stronger cold front, and lift of air over the cold front. The extended portion of the forecast continues to see changes from forecast run to run. The upper trough that was bringing showers and thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday is more progressive, keeping the forecast dry Saturday with subsidence behind the shortwave. There is, however, now a chance thunderstorms Sunday with a cold front and several shortwaves aloft. Over all confidence in rainfall and timing remains low, given day to day model changes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Southwest winds of 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, will decrease to 10 knots or less this evening at the southern 3 sites. Winds will remain between 12 and 18 knots, with higher gusts, at KABI and KSJT. Stratus will return to the southern 3 sites by daybreak, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Expect VFR conditions to return by late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 94 61 82 / 0 0 10 0 San Angelo 67 93 61 87 / 0 0 10 0 Junction 65 93 65 89 / 0 0 20 10 Brownwood 66 93 61 83 / 0 0 20 0 Sweetwater 69 93 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 64 91 63 87 / 0 0 10 0 Brady 68 91 64 86 / 0 0 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Daniels LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...Daniels