FXUS64 KSJT 041705 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1205 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Southerly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH this afternoon across the Big Country. - Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly across the northwest Hill Country. - Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday morning. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Mid-level clouds were over much of west central Texas as Pacific- based moisture was following the quasi-zonal flow aloft. At the surface, a frontal boundary was stalled across the central Plains, while an area of low pressure was developing in the lee of the Rockies. Southerly winds will quickly increase to 10-20 MPH by mid- morning thanks to the developing surface low pressure. Gusts over 25 MPH are expected this afternoon across the Big Country as stronger winds are mixed down to the surface. The southerly flow and ample sunshine will result in warmer high temperatures today as most areas will see highs in the upper 80s. However, some thermal troughing over northwest Texas should push high temperatures into the mid 90s across the Big Country. The aforementioned low pressure system will shift southward overnight into Oklahoma. Although winds should decrease a bit this evening with the loss of thermal mixing, they'll still be in the 10-15 MPH range. Low-level moisture should advect into west central Texas late tonight. Between this and cloud cover increasing, low temperatures will be rather mild in the mid to upper 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Surface trough across North Texas Tuesday into Wednesday will bring southwest to west winds to the region, with a dryline pushing east of an Abilene to Sonora line each day. A weak cold front will moves through Tuesday night with a stronger cold front Wednesday night. This will bring cooler conditions Thursday before a warmup Friday into Saturday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly along and southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Additional thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday with the stronger cold front, and lift of air over the cold front. The extended portion of the forecast continues to see changes from forecast run to run. The upper trough that was bringing showers and thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday is more progressive, keeping the forecast dry Saturday with subsidence behind the shortwave. There is, however, now a chance thunderstorms Sunday with a cold front and several shortwaves aloft. Over all confidence in rainfall and timing remains low, given day to day model changes. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1201 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Southwest winds of 12 to 16 knots, with higher gusts, will decrease to 10 knots or less this evening at the southern 3 sites. Winds will remain between 12 and 18 knots, with higher gusts, at KABI and KSJT. Stratus will return to the southern 3 sites by daybreak, resulting in MVFR ceilings. Expect VFR conditions to return by late morning. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 69 94 61 82 / 0 0 10 0 San Angelo 67 93 61 87 / 0 0 10 0 Junction 65 93 65 89 / 0 0 20 10 Brownwood 66 93 61 83 / 0 0 20 0 Sweetwater 69 93 61 85 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 64 91 63 87 / 0 0 10 0 Brady 68 91 64 86 / 0 0 20 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...SK LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...Daniels