FXUS64 KSJT 041113

AFDSJT



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service San Angelo TX

613 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES... 



- Southerly winds of 15-20 MPH with gusts near 30 MPH this

  afternoon across the Big Country.



- Low (20%) chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into 

  Wednesday morning, mainly across the northwest Hill Country.



- Low (20-30%) chances for rain Wednesday night into Thursday

  morning.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Today and tonight)

Issued at 150 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Mid-level clouds were over much of west central Texas as Pacific-

based moisture was following the quasi-zonal flow aloft. At the 

surface, a frontal boundary was stalled across the central Plains, 

while an area of low pressure was developing in the lee of the 

Rockies. Southerly winds will quickly increase to 10-20 MPH by mid-

morning thanks to the developing surface low pressure.  Gusts over 

25 MPH are expected this afternoon across the Big Country as 

stronger winds are mixed down to the surface. The southerly flow and 

ample sunshine will result in warmer high temperatures today as most 

areas will see highs in the upper 80s.  However, some thermal 

troughing over northwest Texas should push high temperatures into 

the mid 90s across the Big Country. The aforementioned low pressure 

system will shift southward overnight into Oklahoma. Although winds 

should decrease a bit this evening with the loss of thermal mixing, 

they'll still be in the 10-15 MPH range.  Low-level moisture should 

advect into west central Texas late tonight. Between this and cloud 

cover increasing, low temperatures will be rather mild in the mid to 

upper 60s.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Tuesday through Sunday)

Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Surface trough across North Texas Tuesday into Wednesday will bring 

southwest to west winds to the region, with a dryline pushing east 

of an Abilene to Sonora line each day. A weak cold front will

moves through Tuesday night with a stronger cold front Wednesday 

night. This will bring cooler conditions Thursday before a warmup 

Friday into Saturday.



There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night 

into Wednesday morning, mainly along and southeast of a Sonora to 

Brownwood line. Additional thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday 

night into Thursday with the stronger cold front, and lift of air

over the cold front.



The extended portion of the forecast continues to see changes from 

forecast run to run. The upper trough that was bringing showers and 

thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday is more progressive, 

keeping the forecast dry Saturday with subsidence behind the 

shortwave. There is, however, now a chance thunderstorms Sunday with 

a cold front and several shortwaves aloft. Over all confidence in 

rainfall and timing remains low, given day to day model changes.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 613 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026



Southerly winds are expected to increase to 15-20KT with gusts 

over 25KT after 15Z. Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next

24 hours although MVFR ceilings are expected to move into Junction

and possibly Brady after about 09Z.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Abilene     90  69  92  62 /   0   0   0  10 

San Angelo  88  66  93  62 /   0   0   0  10 

Junction    85  65  92  65 /   0   0   0  20 

Brownwood   86  66  91  62 /   0   0   0  20 

Sweetwater  92  68  91  62 /   0   0   0   0 

Ozona       85  64  92  62 /   0   0   0  10 

Brady       85  67  92  66 /   0   0   0  20 



&&



.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...SK

LONG TERM....04

AVIATION...SK