FXUS64 KSJT 040537 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1237 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low (20-30%) chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly across our southeast counties. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026 Warm and breezy conditions will continue to start the work week. On Monday a lee surface trough over southwestern Kansas will extend southward across the Texas Panhandle. Tightening pressure gradient will result in gusty south-southwest winds in the afternoon. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s, with lower 90s in the Big Country. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Surface trough across North Texas Tuesday into Wednesday will bring southwest to west winds to the region, with a dryline pushing east of an Abilene to Sonora line each day. A weak cold front will moves through Tuesday night with s stronger cold front Wednesday night. This will bring cooler conditions Thursday before a warmup Friday into Saturday. There is a chance of showers and thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly along and southeast of a Sonora to Brownwood line. Additional thunderstorms are possible late Wednesday night into Thursday with the stronger cold front, and lift of air over the cold front. The extended portion of the forecast continues to see changes from forecast run to run. The upper trough that was bringing showers and thunderstorm activity Friday and Saturday is more progressive, keeping the forecast dry Saturday with subsidence behind the shortwave. There is, however, now a chance thunderstorms Sunday with a cold front and several shortwaves aloft. Over all confidence in rainfall and timing remains low, given day to day model changes. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours, although there is a low chance (<25%) for some scattered MVFR ceilings between 12-15Z near Sonora and Junction. Otherwise, southerly winds are expected to increase to 15-20KT with gusts over 25KT after 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 90 69 92 62 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 88 66 93 62 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 85 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 20 Brownwood 86 66 91 62 / 0 0 0 20 Sweetwater 92 68 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 85 64 92 62 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 85 67 92 66 / 0 0 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....04 AVIATION...SK