FXUS64 KSJT 040507 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 1207 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Low (20-30%) chances for thunderstorms late Tuesday night into Wednesday morning, mainly across our southeast counties. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Monday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026 Warm and breezy conditions will continue to start the work week. On Monday a lee surface trough over southwestern Kansas will extend southward across the Texas Panhandle. Tightening pressure gradient will result in gusty south-southwest winds in the afternoon. Highs will warm into the mid to upper 80s, with lower 90s in the Big Country. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Sunday) Issued at 305 PM CDT Sun May 3 2026 Above normal temperatures are forecast across West Central Texas on Tuesday. Highs will be in the upper 80s to lower 90s across most of the area. The 12Z NAM brings the front into the Big Country Tuesday morning, resulting in cooler temperatures with highs in the lower 70s. For now this is an outlier, but will continue to monitor as highs may need to be trended down some, mainly across the Big Country, if the front is a bit faster. They dryline is forecast to push east through the afternoon, reaching our far eastern counties by mid to late afternoon. There is a low (20-30%) chance that showers and thunderstorms develop along the dryline during the later afternoon and evening hours. For now, expect the cap to keep most locations dry, but if a storm does develop, strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. Highs on Wednesday will generally be in the mid to upper 80s. The NAM again is cooler with highs, as it stalls the cold front across central portions of the area. For now, went closer to the model consensus for temperatures. An upper level trough will track across the Northern Plains on Wednesday, sending a cold front south through the forecast area Wednesday night into Thursday morning. This will usher in gusty north winds and cooler temperatures. Lows Thursday morning will be in the upper 40s to mid 50s, with highs on Thursday in the 70s. A warming trend is then forecast into the weekend, with highs back into the 80s. Most of the global models are indicating an upper level low approaching the forecast area next weekend. This is forecast to bring our next chance of rain to the area. Given the uncertainty on timing and track of this system, have generally kept rain chances on the low end (~20%). && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1207 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Mainly VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours, although there is a low chance (<25%) for some scattered MVFR ceilings between 12-15Z near Sonora and Junction. Otherwise, southerly winds are expected to increase to 15-20KT with gusts over 25KT after 15Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 90 69 92 62 / 0 0 0 10 San Angelo 88 66 93 62 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 85 65 92 65 / 0 0 0 20 Brownwood 86 66 91 62 / 0 0 0 20 Sweetwater 92 68 91 62 / 0 0 0 0 Ozona 85 64 92 62 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 85 67 92 66 / 0 0 0 20 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...42 LONG TERM....Daniels AVIATION...SK