FXUS64 KSHV 240419 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1119 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...New DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1111 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 - Heavy rainfall will be possible as early as Friday night and continue through the day Saturday that could lead to heavy rainfall across portions of the region - A few strong thunderstorms may be possible on Friday night and Saturday night. - Much cooler temperatures expected by midweek next week with highs around 70 and lows in the 40s. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1114 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Upper-flow overnight to become zonal across the ArkLaTex as an upper- level low digs southeast into New Mexico. A weak disturbance within the zonal flow could prompt scattered convection across mainly the I- 30 corridor near daybreak. This will be the start of a long duration rainfall event that will continue through most of the weekend. On Friday, upper-low will deepen with surface cyclogenesis enhancing a closed low across Oklahoma. A convective complex is forecast to swing east across central Texas on Friday evening, possibly moving into east Texas and weakening by daybreak. Widespread rainfall is expected across the entire ArkLaTex on Saturday with another burst of heavier convection possible across north Louisiana and possibly south Arkansas Saturday night into Sunday morning with conditions improving from the west during the day on Sunday. The heavy rainfall threat will be highest from Friday night into Saturday morning and again late Saturday night into the early Sunday morning hours. 2-5 inches of rainfall can be expected with the higher values along and south of the I-20 corridor across northeast Louisiana and south Arkansas . After coordination with neighboring offices will hold off on a Flood Watch with this package due to the higher threat being on Saturday night. A secondary threat outside of heavy rainfall will be strong storms possible on Saturday evening into the overnight hours. Mainly dry conditions to prevail through the remainder of the forecast period with the exception of a few showers possible on Monday night with the passage of a frontal boundary. High pressure behind the front will reinforce cool conditions through mid to late week with highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s. Highs on Wednesday could struggle to reach 70 degrees with lows in the 40s on Thursday morning as the surface high settles across north Texas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 802 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Aside from some mid and high clouds drifting west to east across the airspace overnight from convection near the DFW metro, a quiet overnight period is expected. The mid and high clouds will linger through the morning ahead of an increase in mid and upper level CIGs as RA prospects increase across the NW tier of the airspace through the late morning and into the early afternoon. Elected to carry RA with some VCTS across select terminals in ETX, and north to the I-30 terminals. Hi-res guidance suggests much of this tapers of through the end of the TAF period though the CIGs will hang around. S/SE terminal winds will prevail through the period, mainly holding between 5-10kt. 53 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1109 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Spotter activation may be needed Friday and Saturday nights. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 58 83 64 75 / 0 0 60 80 MLU 50 83 59 77 / 0 0 10 70 DEQ 54 74 56 68 / 30 60 70 80 TXK 57 80 61 72 / 10 20 60 80 ELD 51 78 57 71 / 0 0 20 80 TYR 62 84 64 75 / 20 20 80 90 GGG 59 83 63 75 / 10 10 70 90 LFK 59 85 64 78 / 0 10 60 90 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...53