FXUS64 KSHV 240108 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 808 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 - Today will be our last day of quiet weather before a major pattern change will bring a prolonged period of unsettled weather conditions - Heavy rainfall will be possible as early as Friday night and continue through the day Saturday that could lead to some Flash Flooding across portions of the region && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1211 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Upper-air analysis from this afternoon continues to show a large trough over the eastern CONUS with another closed low moving into the Four Corners region. This has left our area in northwest flow aloft. Meanwhile, surface analysis continues to show high pressure lingering across our region which is responsible for our calm weather today. This will all change as the closed low continues to move across the Four Corners region and then progresses into the central Plains by Saturday morning, centering itself over the Kansas/Oklahoma borders. As this happens, showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop as early as Friday morning across our far northwestern zones, spreading to the south across our far western zones by Friday afternoon. While most of these showers and thunderstorms will remain across our western zones on Friday, this will become more widespread by Friday night and into Saturday as the low continues to traverse to the east. Overall QPF amounts will be on the lower end from Friday morning through Friday evening before the heavier rain begins to move through the region. As we move deeper into the Friday night and Saturday morning, heavy rainfall potential will increase across the region with overall rainfall amounts through early Sunday morning ranging from the 2-5 inch range across the area and localized heavier amounts possible. Because of this, WPC has us placed in a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall for areas along and south of the I-20 corridor, with a Marginal Risk north of this area. In addition, we will likely be issuing a Flood Watch in the coming forecast packages, whether it be this evening or with the day shift on Friday. The main reason we didn't on this package is mainly because of the timing, with most of our heaviest rainfall expected late Friday night and into Saturday, it would be nice to see how rainfall totals trend over the next few model runs and then place something out based on that. Nonetheless, it looks like we will need one for some portions of the area. Last thing about this system, there is some potential that as storms progress through the region on Saturday we will see some strong to severe thunderstorms develop. The greatest threat for this will be in a Marginal Risk area that the SPC has painted currently for our east Texas counties south of I-20, and adjacent parishes in western Louisiana. Upper-level low will begin to lift to the northeast late Sunday and as such, rain will begin to exit the area from west to east through the day Sunday and should be out of the area by Sunday night. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 802 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Aside from some mid and high clouds drifting west to east across the airspace overnight from convection near the DFW metro, a quiet overnight period is expected. The mid and high clouds will linger through the morning ahead of an increase in mid and upper level CIGs as RA prospects increase across the NW tier of the airspace through the late morning and into the early afternoon. Elected to carry RA with some VCTS across select terminals in ETX, and north to the I-30 terminals. Hi-res guidance suggests much of this tapers of through the end of the TAF period though the CIGs will hang around. S/SEterminal winds will prevail through the period, mainly holding between 5-10kt. 53 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1209 PM CDT Wed Oct 22 2025 Spotter activation is not anticipated through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 57 83 64 75 / 0 0 40 80 MLU 50 82 58 76 / 0 0 10 70 DEQ 54 76 56 68 / 10 30 60 90 TXK 56 81 61 73 / 0 10 50 80 ELD 50 78 57 71 / 0 0 20 70 TYR 61 83 64 75 / 10 20 70 100 GGG 57 83 63 75 / 0 10 60 90 LFK 58 85 64 77 / 0 10 50 90 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...53