FXUS64 KSHV 211148

AFDSHV



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Shreveport LA

648 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



 - Scattered showers and storms will be possible north and west

   this morning, with more widespread spotty coverage into the 

   afternoon. A few gusty winds are possible.



 - Dry conditions will resume Tuesday, with trends favoring some

   relief from the heat in the form of highs in the upper 80s to 

   lower 90s and overnight lows in the 60s by late in the week. 



 - Long range guidance suggests a warming trend into the weekend

   and returning rain chances early next week. 



&&



.DISCUSSION...

Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



A weak band of showers has been slowly drifting across north Texas 

and south Oklahoma through the evening, but struggling to maintain 

structure as it pushes into our CWA. Short range guidance suggests 

this will continue through the night, with light showers at most, 

keeping largely northwest of the I-30 corridor. Renewed rainfall 

development into the morning is possible, but looks to be confined 

to the same general region, across the northwest of the ArkLaTex. 



By midday, the weak shortwave responsible for this moisture impulse 

will begin to push eastward, swinging the surface boundary along 

with it, and spreading rainfall chances eastward. The mode of the 

associated convection looks to be less linear in nature, with short 

range CAMs suggesting more isolated pop-up convection across the 

majority of the region through the late afternoon and early evening 

hours tomorrow. Organized severe weather is not expected, but 

general thunderstorms are expected across the region, with a few 

gusty winds possible. Convection will quiet down in the hours after 

sunset, with quiet conditions persisting afterwards, aside from a 

few scattered showers and storms south and east Tuesday afternoon. 



High pressure will begin to reassert itself Tuesday, as ridging over 

the Front Range pushes east over the Plains, where it will remain 

through the rest of the week, as a large closed high takes shape 

over east Texas and Louisiana. The almost triangular shape of this 

high, guided by the parent ridge, in tandem with the pressure center 

drifting south towards the coast, opens the door for less 

aggressively hot conditions by the end of this forecast period. 

Referring to the afternoon temperatures as a "cool down" feels 

generous to the point of unrealistic, but highs only in the upper 

80s to lower 90s will be a welcome change of pace. Morning lows will 

constitute a breath of fresh air, particularly for our Arkansas 

counties, which will be among the first to enjoy lows in the upper 

60s, with lower 60s north to upper 60s south becoming routine by the 

end of the week. Long range guidance suggests a warming trend into 

the weekend, with potential rainfall chances emerging on northwest 

flow into early next week. 



/26/



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 644 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



For the 21/12z TAF period, mostly VFR conditions are expected to 

continue through the period aside from MVFR conditions at KLFK 

early this morning due to patchy fog and low stratus. Clouds will 

continue to increase in coverage with an expanding cirrus shield 

and a cu field quickly developing through the day in advance of an

approaching cold front. This front will bring increasing chances 

of convection by this afternoon so have included VCTS at all sites 

at some point during the afternoon into early evening. Otherwise,

winds will be light from the S/SE initially and increase slightly

from the SW ahead of the front between 5-10 kts and higher invof 

convection before light and variable winds return later in the 

period as the front stalls before eventually shifting northerly

areawide by Tuesday with fropa.



/19/



&&



.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Issued at 116 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



Spotter activation is not expected at this time.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

SHV  97  73  97  74 /  20  20   0   0 

MLU  98  72  98  72 /  20  20  10   0 

DEQ  95  67  93  66 /  40  20   0   0 

TXK  97  72  94  72 /  30  20   0   0 

ELD  98  70  96  69 /  30  20  10   0 

TYR  97  73  96  74 /  40  20  10  10 

GGG  99  71  99  72 /  30  20  10   0 

LFK  95  73  97  75 /  20  20   0   0 



&&



.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

AR...None.

LA...None.

OK...None.

TX...None.

&&





$$



DISCUSSION...26

AVIATION...19