FXUS64 KSHV 191102 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 602 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 ...New AVIATION, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 - Warm up continues through the possibility of record high temperatures for some locations by the upcoming weekend. - Next cold front will impact our region late Sunday Night into Monday but the front should come in dry. - Dry is the key word to this forecast as wildfire probabilities will continue to increase through the forecast period. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1103 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Clear skies overnight tonight will allow for maximum radiational cooling. Several sites are cooler than previously forecast, so I've nudged overnight low temperatures down a few degrees to allow for more cooling. Otherwise, the forecast from the day shift remains on track. An upper-level ridge over the western CONUS will keep skies clear and combine with the persistent southerly surface flow and warm up the region through the rest of this week. Temperatures in the low 80s on Thursday will near 90 by Saturday afternoon, which could result in some broken temperature records Saturday and Sunday. This ridge will begin to weaken during the day on Sunday which will allow a cold front to push south into the region sometime on Monday. There is still plenty of uncertainty on the timing and forward propagation of this front, but it is unlikely that there will be any rain associated with it. Where this front moves will inform the afternoon highs on Monday before the region warms up again going into the middle of next week. Long-range models have upper-level flow becoming more zonal by the end of the period, which makes any hope for rain look unlikely. The continued dry conditions will make fire weather a top concern through the period. Southerly surface flow has contributed to slightly higher RH's over the past day or so. However, the fuels are dry enough for easy fire spread without critically low humidities. Several wildfires started in the Ark-La-Tx during the day on Wednesday, one requiring evacuations in Winn Parish this evening. As such, a Fire Danger Statement has been issued for the entire region during the day Thursday in order to highlight the wildfire risk. Additional fire weather products may be necessary over the coming days, but always follow guidance from local officials regarding outdoor burning. 57 && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 600 AM CDT Thu Mar 19 2026 For the 19/12z TAF period...Expect VFR conditions throughout the TAF period with a few passing mid and high clouds. Winds will be from the SSW near 10 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph by this afternoon, before diminishing after sunset. Reduced flight categories may develop at KLFK by the end of the TAF period, as low cigs move in from the south. /20/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 100 PM CDT Wed Mar 18 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. 13 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 81 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 0 MLU 80 55 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 DEQ 81 51 85 54 / 0 0 0 0 TXK 82 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 ELD 80 55 85 58 / 0 0 0 0 TYR 82 58 87 61 / 0 0 0 0 GGG 82 57 87 60 / 0 0 0 0 LFK 80 55 84 59 / 0 0 0 0 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...57 AVIATION...20