FXUS64 KSHV 050255 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 955 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 - Dry conditions remain in place for today across the region. - Showers and thunderstorms, some severe, will return to the area late Tuesday and through the day Wednesday. - Cooler temperatures on Thursday, followed by a warming trend into the weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 We remain under the influence of a very weak upper-level ridge today, some might even call it "pseudo-zonal flow", which has helped produce the mostly sunny skies over the past few days. While this feature will remain in control through tomorrow, there will be a weak short-wave trough move through the central CONUS that could bring some showers or thunderstorms very late this evening and into the early overnight hours across our far northern zones. While models are in disagreement about this, there was enough for me to at least deviate from the NBM and add some PoPs across our northern zones from 05/03z to 05/09z. Meanwhile, a closed low will be moving inland over central California today that will gradually push through the Rocky Mountain region and into the Central Plains by Wednesday night. At the surface, a cold front is currently pushing through the central CONUS and will begin to move into our region from the north by Tuesday afternoon and into Tuesday night. Showers and thunderstorms should increase along and ahead of the frontal boundary as it moves through the area during the day Wednesday. Strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible Tuesday evening, especially for areas near and north of the I-30 corridor where a Slight Risk has been placed by SPC. As the cold front moves through the area on Wednesday, this Slight Risk will shift to areas near and south of the I-30 corridor and will encompass the rest of the area. Models indicate that storms could get fired up as early as 06/00z across our northwest zones and might not clear our southeast zones till 07/12z, which is slower than earlier model runs. This threat will be very conditional for our area, and this is shown by the difference in coverage that the short range vs long range models are showing. Dry conditions then return to the area following the exit of the aforementioned convection and cooler temperatures will be in place for Thursday before a warming trend commences on Friday and into the weekend. Our next decent chance for widespread convection looks to be Saturday night into Sunday, but models are still in great disagreement about that. /33/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 951 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 For the 05/00z TAF period...Expect VFR conditions with BKN high cigs across the region through this evening. However, MVFR cigs will move across the sites overnight and remain through most of the remaining TAF period. Winds will be breezy out of the south between 10 to 15 mph, with gusts 20-25 mph at times. /20/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1257 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 67 86 71 82 / 0 10 20 80 MLU 63 85 71 86 / 0 10 10 90 DEQ 63 84 60 73 / 20 20 60 60 TXK 67 86 67 77 / 10 10 50 70 ELD 63 84 66 77 / 10 10 40 90 TYR 69 86 70 82 / 0 10 30 50 GGG 67 86 70 82 / 0 10 20 70 LFK 66 86 72 86 / 0 0 10 70 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...33 AVIATION...20