FXUS64 KSHV 041725 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1225 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 - Hot conditions will remain over the region through most of the upcoming work week, with increasing humidity. - Isolated to widely scattered precipitation chances (20-30%) will return across portions of the region each afternoon, with more widespread coverage by the end of the week into early next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 The forecast area will remain on the eastern periphery of a large flat ridge centered over the SW CONUS. The original thought was that the ridge would have enough influence over the region to keep us mostly rain-free. That could still be the case across our western zones, which would generally be portions of East Texas. But, with increasing low-level moisture over the region over the next couple of days, short-term progs suggest this could give us enough instability to generate some isolated to widely scattered convection during afternoon peak heating. Most of this convection is expected to be across our Louisiana zones, but it could push into adjacent portions of East Texas, along with portion of Southwest/South-Central Arkansas. This also leads to questions concerning heat headlines. With humidity/dew points increasing over the area and temperatures in the mid to upper 90s, heat indices could approach the 105 degree heat advisory threshold in some areas. However, rain and cloud cover could keep temperatures down enough to keep heat headlines out of the forecast. At this time, will hold off on any heat products, as forecast conditions remain borderline. But, we will likely revisit this issue daily this week. As we move towards the latter half of the week into next weekend, models continue to suggest the ridge will shift back west of the region. During this period, the absence of the ridge will allow for more widespread afternoon convection. Models also some hint that an upper trough could get close enough to the region on Friday and Saturday to help enhance precipitation chances across the region. By the first half of next week, we could see the return of drier conditions, as upper ridging tries to build back into the area. /20/ && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 PM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 For the 04/18Z TAFs, VFR conditions will prevail for the duration of this forecast period. This afternoon's Cu field will begin to dissipate after sunset, with BKN to SCT lower VFR to high clouds through the night. Southwesterly winds of about 5 kts will continue this afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight, before increasing to 5 kts from the southwest by the end of this forecast period. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1233 AM CDT Tue Aug 4 2026 Spotter activation is not expected over the next 24 hours. /20/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 77 96 77 96 / 0 20 0 10 MLU 73 97 75 97 / 0 20 0 10 DEQ 71 97 73 96 / 0 10 10 10 TXK 75 98 76 98 / 0 20 10 10 ELD 72 96 74 95 / 0 20 0 20 TYR 77 98 77 98 / 0 20 0 10 GGG 75 98 76 98 / 0 20 0 10 LFK 75 96 75 95 / 0 20 10 10 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...20 AVIATION...26