FXUS64 KSHV 030733 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 133 AM CST Tue Feb 3 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 1159 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 - The Ground Hog & Claude the Crawfish saw their shadows implying 6 more weeks of Winter. Which is actually true either way technically with Spring 45.4 days away.Friday 3/20 at 9:46a.m. - Our next cold front and upper level low will begin spreading showers across our NE TX zones in the predawn hours on Tuesday with increasing coverage & limited intensity ending overnight. - Below average 50s for highs and 30s for lows return in the wake of the front for Wednesday and Thursday. Then warmer above average temperatures for Friday and upcoming busy weekend. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1159 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Finally, a warm period and plenty of time to melt the ice that remained so well in the shaded areas. And this process continues overnight with warmer mid 40s to lower 50s. In addition, the wind is stirring and will help in that same regard not being saturated until daybreak, and even if by then. Not looking for much fog per say. The S/SW winds will be brisk enough and will keep for just a short period of daylight before shifting to NW with the surface front mid morning to noon across I-30 and through the afternoon for our I-20 corridor for Tyler and Texarkana shortly after lunch and Longview and Shreveport by mid afternoon and Lufkin and Monroe to follow by sunset. The rain clouds will be possible after daybreak with the warm air advecting in with some light showers, then heavier elements of needed downpours, associated with heating and the frontal passage. Rainfall amounts will range from maybe a tenth north of I-30, to a quarter to half inch along I-20, but near one inch amounts may occur in deep east Texas and CenLA where the moisture off the Gulf of America deepens aloft the most as the southerly winds persist. So it follows, this is where our higher totals are anticipated ahead of the coming NW wind shift. Rain tapers to light showers ending during the evening down our I-49 corridor. And skies will clear overnight with the freshly cold and dry NW winds. Look for temps to end up just below seasonal for a couple of days. Then we'll reboot Warm and Dry for the weekend, despite a secondary frontal passage? More like a glancing blow of NE winds early on Saturday morning that will shifting back to SE before even nightfall. Then we can look forward to well above average 70s for highs this weekend. However, before we get there, behind today's rain and frontal passage, a 1032mb surface high fresh from Canada will briefly spread over the Lone Star state and knock our lows back below freezing for I-30 and north, with a cooler than average range of 30s elsewhere during mid to late week, but some 40s inch back in over our TX counties by Friday on the back side of the chilly air mass. Then our lows for the weekend will run up through the 40s to low 50s by early next week. And perhaps our next wet period which has eyes for the middle of week, on & off through Valentine's Day and perhaps our local Mardi Gras with a Pacific bowling ball Upper Low on the horizon over the Sea of Cortez. /24/ && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1123 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 For the 03/06Z TAFs, high cloud decks will continue to increase in coverage from the southwest, followed by widespread lowering to MVFR levels by 03/12Z and IFR into the morning hours. Showers and storms will increase from the northwest overnight, spreading areawide through the morning and tapering off through the afternoon. Conditions will start to improve by the end of this forecast period with the passage of the front. South winds will continue at 5 to 10 kts through most of the forecast period, pivoting to westerly and northerly tomorrow afternoon. /26/ && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1159 PM CST Mon Feb 2 2026 Thunderstorms remain focused on Tuesday and through the evening for the entire ArkLaTex, and yet still with no widespread expectation of reaching severe limits. Spotter activation is not expected at this time. /24/ && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 66 51 65 40 / 0 30 90 10 MLU 61 44 62 38 / 0 10 90 50 DEQ 60 42 62 31 / 0 60 70 0 TXK 65 50 64 36 / 0 50 80 0 ELD 64 45 62 34 / 0 30 90 10 TYR 65 53 67 38 / 0 30 70 0 GGG 66 51 67 37 / 0 40 80 0 LFK 68 53 67 41 / 0 30 90 30 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...24 AVIATION...26