FXUS64 KOUN 251145 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 645 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - Patchy fog may develop this morning across portions of northern and western Oklahoma. Reduced visibility may cause hazardous driving conditions. - Low chances for scattered storms to develop this afternoon across portions of central and southern Oklahoma and into western north Texas. The severe potential remains low. - A pattern change may bring cold air and the first freeze to northwest Oklahoma by midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Saturday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Most of the activity early this morning remains sub-severe with the warm front draped across north Texas and very little instability north of the boundary. Rainfall rates are roughly 0.5"/hour with mostly minor nuisance flooding of low-lying roadways and areas and with the higher PWATs pushing eastward, the rainfall rates this morning will continue to be around or less than 0.5"/hour. Dry air has already begun to fill in across portions of southern Oklahoma and western north Texas with rain chances ending. As the surface low translates eastward today, wrap around showers and weak storms may continue Saturday morning across portions of northern and western Oklahoma. Persistent low-level moisture and recent rainfall may give way to the development of patchy fog across portions of western Oklahoma this morning. Cloudy skies and some areas of light rain will keep temperatures cool in the 60s across much of the area, but breaks in the clouds may allow for some warming temperatures into the 70s across portions of western north Texas and southern Oklahoma. Weak elevated instability may provide some rumbles of thunder, but overall the threat for any strong to severe storms will be low. By this afternoon, the upper low will be approaching Oklahoma with increased lift in the mid-levels. The strongest lift will remain south of the forecast area in Texas. However, some of the higher resolution models are hinting at scattered convection developing during the afternoon hours across areas that remain rain free Saturday morning (most likely western north Texas into portions of southern and central Oklahoma). A few storms may become strong, but the threat for severe weather remains low. && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday night through Monday night) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 By Sunday morning, most of the rain will have ended across the forecast area with only a small chance for some wrap around moisture as the upper low continues eastward into towards Arkansas. Cloudy and cool weather is expected Sunday with highs in the 60s to 70s. By Monday, gradual warming into the upper 60s to 70s will occur ahead of a backdoor cold front. South winds will shift to the north by the evening hours. There is a low chance (<30%) of rain showers along and east of I-35 Monday evening. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Friday) Issued at 141 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 By Tuesday, the upper shortwave will dig southeastward into a closed low over Missouri. This will open the door for cold Canadian air to dive into the forecast area with cooler than normal temperatures. North-northwesterly flow will persist aloft and the pattern may continue to keep a cooler airmass in place with below-normal temperatures for the remainder of the week. Depending on the strength of the cold air and pattern aloft, there is a potential for the first freeze to occur across northwest Oklahoma by midweek. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 635 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 Our main storm system has already moved through with steady wrap- around rain across northern Oklahoma with some additional showers developing in the dry slot across west-central into central Oklahoma. Expecting deteriorating conditions with low ceilings/stratus and some reduced visibilities in rain maintaining IFR to periods of LIFR conditions. By 20Z conditions will slightly improve to MVFR conditions at some of our terminals although returning to IFR conditions again by 04Z. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 55 65 53 / 70 30 10 0 Hobart OK 70 52 70 52 / 40 20 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 72 55 72 54 / 40 30 0 0 Gage OK 62 50 65 49 / 60 20 0 0 Ponca City OK 62 54 63 51 / 90 40 10 10 Durant OK 70 59 73 56 / 60 70 20 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...23 SHORT TERM...23 LONG TERM....23 AVIATION...68