FXUS64 KOUN 250405 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1105 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1058 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - Strong/severe storms chances return again this afternoon/evening. Main hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. - Heavy rain/flooding risk Friday into Saturday morning. Localized high end amounts of 3-5 inches are possible, specifically across central Oklahoma. - Several cold fronts may bring cooler, below-normal temperatures by midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 As one round of storms exits eastward, another round is developing out in west Texas. This line of storms will expand north into western Oklahoma and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening, bringing heavy rain and lightning. Instability and deep layer shear will support severe storms across much of southwest Oklahoma and north Texas through about midnight. There is a very low risk for tornadoes. HREF is showing potential for heavy rainfall rates for a similar area (highest probabilities in south central Oklahoma) that could result in some localized flooding. Areas that received heavy rainfall last night will be quicker to flood. At present, not planning on expanding the flood watch westward because of the dry antecedent conditions in western Oklahoma. Scattered showers and occasional storms will remain possible out ahead of the line this afternoon. Then, as the line exits overnight, wrap-around showers are expected to continue across northern Oklahoma into Saturday morning. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Most CAMs are showing a dry slot developing behind the line of storms Friday night, keeping rain chances low for much of southern Oklahoma and north Texas on Saturday. Lingering showers over northern Oklahoma should slowly dissipate, but additional scattered showers and storms are possible in the afternoon / evening with the wrap-around as the center of the low traverses east along the OK / KS border. Lightning probabilities will be much lower, around 10- 20%, through all of Saturday. By Sunday, most of the rain should be out of the area, giving way to gradually clearing skies. Still looking at temperatures on the cool side for Saturday/Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 50s. Day && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 A few shortwaves in the northwesterly flow aloft will bring a couple fronts across the forecast area by midweek. There is a low chance for showers and storms Monday across central Oklahoma, otherwise dry conditions are expected for most of the week. This pattern will open the door for a cold Canadian airmass to fill into the forecast area by midweek potentially bring below-normal temperatures in the 50s to 60s and low temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1058 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Main precipitation shield is moving eastward with decreasing rain amounts in southwest Oklahoma and western north Texas. This slackening of heavier rain and lightning will continue late tonight in central and southeast Oklahoma, but northern Oklahoma will continue to see showers well into the day tomorrow. Ceilings will also continue to drop well into the IFR range, with sites in northern and central Oklahoma potentially being LIFR at times. Winds will remain below 10 knots for the most part. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 57 66 55 / 80 90 70 40 Hobart OK 74 57 70 53 / 80 80 50 30 Wichita Falls TX 77 59 71 55 / 80 90 40 20 Gage OK 71 53 62 50 / 70 80 60 30 Ponca City OK 63 55 62 53 / 80 90 90 40 Durant OK 72 59 71 59 / 50 100 60 50 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ008-012-013- 017>020-023>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ090. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...04