FXUS64 KOUN 242338 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 638 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 630 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - Strong/severe storms chances return again this afternoon/evening. Main hazards will be large hail and damaging wind gusts. - Heavy rain/flooding risk Friday into Saturday morning. Localized high end amounts of 3-5 inches are possible, specifically across central Oklahoma. - Several cold fronts may bring cooler, below-normal temperatures by midweek. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 As one round of storms exits eastward, another round is developing out in west Texas. This line of storms will expand north into western Oklahoma and progress eastward through the afternoon and evening, bringing heavy rain and lightning. Instability and deep layer shear will support severe storms across much of southwest Oklahoma and north Texas through about midnight. There is a very low risk for tornadoes. HREF is showing potential for heavy rainfall rates for a similar area (highest probabilities in south central Oklahoma) that could result in some localized flooding. Areas that received heavy rainfall last night will be quicker to flood. At present, not planning on expanding the flood watch westward because of the dry antecedent conditions in western Oklahoma. Scattered showers and occasional storms will remain possible out ahead of the line this afternoon. Then, as the line exits overnight, wrap-around showers are expected to continue across northern Oklahoma into Saturday morning. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Saturday through Sunday night) Issued at 1239 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Most CAMs are showing a dry slot developing behind the line of storms Friday night, keeping rain chances low for much of southern Oklahoma and north Texas on Saturday. Lingering showers over northern Oklahoma should slowly dissipate, but additional scattered showers and storms are possible in the afternoon / evening with the wrap-around as the center of the low traverses east along the OK / KS border. Lightning probabilities will be much lower, around 10- 20%, through all of Saturday. By Sunday, most of the rain should be out of the area, giving way to gradually clearing skies. Still looking at temperatures on the cool side for Saturday/Sunday with highs in the 60s and 70s, and lows in the 50s. Day && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through Wednesday) Issued at 1232 AM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 A few shortwaves in the northwesterly flow aloft will bring a couple fronts across the forecast area by midweek. There is a low chance for showers and storms Monday across central Oklahoma, otherwise dry conditions are expected for most of the week. This pattern will open the door for a cold Canadian airmass to fill into the forecast area by midweek potentially bring below-normal temperatures in the 50s to 60s and low temperatures into the upper 30s to lower 40s. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 630 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms continue to move from west to east across the area. Flight categories are rather varied across the area from LIFR all the way to VFR. This will continue as long as local storms are influencing the ceilings, but after about 09Z as this wave moves east we will see more widespread IFR ceilings and visibilities start to take hold. Lingering showers across northern and northwestern Oklahoma are expected tomorrow with reduced ceilings/visibilities && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 57 66 55 66 / 90 70 40 10 Hobart OK 57 70 53 71 / 80 50 30 0 Wichita Falls TX 59 7155 74 / 90 40 20 0 Gage OK 53 62 50 66 / 80 60 30 0 Ponca City OK 55 62 53 65 / 90 90 40 10 Durant OK 59 71 59 74 / 100 60 50 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for OKZ008-012-013- 017>020-023>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Flood Watch through Saturday afternoon for TXZ090. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....25 AVIATION...04