FXUS64 KOUN 210738 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 - Temperatures will be not as hot. - At least a low potential for precipitation each day, with higher chances beginning Wednesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The cold front continues to move south through the area. Scattered thunderstorms have developed near the surface low affecting Foard and Knox Counties and adjacent areas. We could also see isolated development along the front, such as one small thunderstorm that developed late last night near Anadarko, but the chances are highest near the surface low to the southwest. Other showers and thunderstorms that developed on the High Plains of the Centennial State are pushing east into Kansas and may drift into far northwest Oklahoma around sunrise. These showers and thunderstorms should diminish through the morning, with at least the potential of redevelopment this afternoon across north Texas and southern Oklahoma near the cold front. Temperatures will not be as hot as last week with the front, but temperatures will still be above seasonal averages. The NBM forecast temperatures are skewed toward a warmer bias-corrected forecast since temperatures have been so hot recently, but this recent bias is likely not fully applicable to this new airmass, so have lowered the forecast maxes from NBM to be closer to the model guidance, although still on the warm side of the guidance envelope. && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 The upper ridge builds back over the area through mid-week, although the magnitude is not as strong as the last couple of weeks and we remain in this not-as-hot post-frontal airmass. But with the ridge building over the area, the forecast temperatures do not look as cool as some of the previous models would have suggested and highs will still be in the 80s and lower 90s, above seasonal averages. In this weather pattern, the chances for showers and storms will be from afternoon/evening storm development in the eastern Colorado and New Mexico plains drifting east and potentially moving into western Oklahoma and western north Texas. But with the ridge over Texas/Oklahoma, convection would not likely move very far east into the area. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 238 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026 Later in the week, the upper ridge weakens and the flow aloft transitions from southwesterly to more zonal. Various shortwaves in the flow will keep some precipitation chances in the forecast, although the highest potential will remain in the northern and western portions of the area. Temperatures will still be above seasonal averages in the 80s to mid 90s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1053 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026 Low cloud cover is just now starting to develop across portions of northern Oklahoma. Ceilings will remain between 1,000 and 2,500 feet within that stratus deck - mostly MVFR, though can't rule out brief forays into IFR conditions near PNC. Stratus will break up into cumulus around noon with VFR conditions returning. Low chances for thunderstorms in northwest Oklahoma in the morning, and near the Red River in the afternoon. Meister && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 87 65 86 62 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 89 66 88 64 / 10 20 20 0 Wichita Falls TX 94 67 91 66 / 20 20 20 10 Gage OK 82 60 83 60 / 30 10 10 0 Ponca City OK 83 60 82 57 / 10 0 0 0 Durant OK 94 68 93 68 / 20 10 10 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....26 AVIATION...04