FXUS64 KOUN 191754 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1254 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1253 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Scattered showers/storms this afternoon through the overnight. Isolated strong/severe storms could produce strong and damaging winds. - Not as hot Wednesday, but high humidity keeps heat index values high enough for another Heat Advisory in southeast Oklahoma. - Less hot and dry for the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM... (Rest of today and tonight) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Thunderstorms have begun developing across southeastern Oklahoma, and there has been some persistent cloud development across portions of northwest Oklahoma which could lead to additional development this afternoon. As we have seen in recent days, these thunderstorms will generally be diurnal and coverage not too widespread, but isolated storms will become strong and potentially severe with the potential of strong and damaging winds. Although these thunderstorms are expected to generally dissipate this evening, a number of models show redevelopment of showers and storms before sunrise near and ahead of a cold front that will be moving through the area overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Wednesday through Thursday night) Issued at 1253 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 The cold front that moves into Oklahoma tonight will continue to move south and brings a not-as-hot airmass into the area. But high dewpoints will be slow to clear out behind the front across the eastern half of Oklahoma, so forecast heat index values will still be near advisory criteria in southeastern Oklahoma. A Heat Advisory will again be in place in the southeast Wednesday. With the front moving south through Oklahoma and into Texas tomorrow, the primary area of potential shower and thunderstorm development will shift south Wednesday as well. Some storm potential may linger into early Wednesday afternoon before ending over the area. We finally get more widespread lower dewpoints filtering in Wednesday night and Thursday and may be sufficient to keep heat index values below advisory criteria areawide on Thursday. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 The late week pattern looks dry and "less hot" (highs in the low to mid 90s). Synoptically, we will be positioned between a ridge over the four corners region and trough to our southeast. Rain chances return this weekend across northern Oklahoma as another front looks to approach the area and the upper ridge starts to retreat farther. Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1206 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 VFR ceilings expected again this TAF period. Scattered showers/storms are expected to develop this afternoon across parts of OK and north TX. Strong variable winds will be possible with some of these storms. Showers/storms will remain possible overnight into Wednesday morning. Winds will generally be light except with winds coming out of storms. A weak front will also move south across the area causing winds to shift. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 73 93 71 93 / 30 20 10 0 Hobart OK 71 96 71 97 / 30 30 10 0 Wichita Falls TX 74 95 72 95 / 30 30 10 10 Gage OK 68 94 68 94 / 20 20 10 0 Ponca City OK 71 93 70 92 / 20 10 0 0 Durant OK 75 95 73 94 / 20 30 20 10 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013- 018>020-024>032-038>048-050>052. Heat Advisory from noon to 8 PM CDT Wednesday for OKZ032-043-047- 048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...26 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...25