FXUS64 KOUN 191123 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 623 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 613 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - One more day of high heat indices. - Scattered showers/storms this afternoon through the overnight. - Less hot and dry for the latter half of the week. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Tuesday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Pattern continues with another day of heat and diurnally driven storms. Storms this afternoon will form in an environment characterized by modest instability (~1000 joules) and no shear, resulting in popcorn thunderstorms with slow, erratic storm motions. Inverted-V soundings suggest downburst winds could be a hazard with the stronger storms. The current heat advisory looks on track for today with heat indices of 105 to 110 expected across the central third of Oklahoma and adjacent north Texas. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A front is set to approach northern Oklahoma this evening, and advance through the area overnight. This will serve as a focus for overnight convection, though CAMs suggest coverage will be limited. Hazards will be similar to before (occasional strong downburst winds), with instability gradually waning through the night. Wednesday will see somewhat cooler temperatures behind the front, bringing most of the area out of advisory level conditions (the exception being southeast Oklahoma). Also expect this to begin another period of dry weather. Day && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Monday) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 The late week pattern looks dry and "less hot" (highs in the low to mid 90s). Synoptically, we will be positioned between a ridge over the four corners region and trough to our southeast. Rain chances return this weekend across northern Oklahoma as another front looks to approach the area and the upper ridge starts to retreat farther. Day && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 613 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 All of our terminals will likely remain in the VFR category through the forecast period. Could see afternoon convection break out this afternoon as PROB30s are in place across all terminals between 20Z to 03Z. Any TSRA would be isolated and high-based although should any storms set up right over a terminal could briefly reduce visibilities to an MVFR category in heavy rain. A weak pressure gradient will keep surface winds light and variable at least through 01Z after which a cold front will start pushing into northern Oklahoma shifting winds northeast to northerly at 5-10 kts behind the front. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 97 73 93 70 / 20 30 10 10 Hobart OK 100 72 97 70 / 20 30 10 10 Wichita Falls TX 98 73 95 71 / 20 30 20 10 Gage OK 96 68 93 67 / 20 30 10 10 Ponca City OK 97 72 93 69 / 20 20 10 0 Durant OK 100 75 97 72 / 20 30 20 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for OKZ006>008-011>013-018>020-024>032-038>048-050>052. TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ086-089-090. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...68