FXUS64 KOUN 071051 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 551 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 548 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 - Freeze Warning continues for all areas through 8 AM this morning. - Mild and dry conditions are expected throughout the week. && .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Outside of an ongoing mid-Spring freeze, benign/pleasant sensible weather is expected today. A rather nebulous forcing regime currently exists across the region, with an upper ridge establishing across the Intermountain West. Under mostly clear skies with light winds, efficient radiational cooling is beginning to foster sub-freezing early morning temperatures (and wind chills) for many areas. These conditions, along with chances for frost development given sufficient low-level saturation, will continue through 8-9 AM this morning. Otherwise, splendid conditions are expected during the day. While the background airmass continues to remain somewhat modified/cool, mostly clear skies and light winds will favor seasonable afternoon temperatures (60s). A "backdoor" (weak/dry) surface front is forecast to enter northern Oklahoma into the mid-evening. Outside of a subtle northerly wind shift, nil impact is expected. A few locations may approach the freeze point into early Tuesday morning, especially in sheltered/low- lying areas across the northern one-half of Oklahoma. Ungar && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 A warm and dry weather pattern remains favored into the midweek. The forecast area looks to remain downstream/on the periphery of a high-amplitude upper ridge, with advection of warmed/downsloped airmasses likely. Widespread 70s on Tuesday will give way to a larger profile of 80+ degree temperatures (southwest Oklahoma/north Texas) by Wednesday. Gusty southerly winds are expected across western and northern Oklahoma on Tuesday, in response to a deepening surface cyclone across the Front Range. As of this update, progged gust magnitudes (30-35 mph) remain below advisory concern. A trailing surface front will advance southeastward across all zones on Wednesday afternoon/evening, offering a more pronounced wind shift. For now, chances for precipitation are very low (~10%) with this fropa event. Ungar && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 225 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Dry and seasonable-to-warm conditions continue into the upcoming weekend. Grand ensemble guidance depicts a quasi-omega block pattern emerging across the CONUS towards the late week. This will favor a gradual warming trend and nil precipitation chance across the Southern Plains. Widespread 70s/low-80s are currently progged Thursday and Friday, with more widespread 80s to perhaps 90-degrees (southwest zones) possible by the weekend. Ungar && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 548 AM CDT Mon Apr 7 2025 Winds will become light from the north this morning before becoming light and variable tonight across the eastern portions of the area. Further west, winds will take on a light southerly component tonight. VFR conditions are expected through the period with mainly clear skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 65 40 70 51 / 0 0 0 0 Hobart OK 67 38 74 49 / 0 0 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 65 39 75 52 / 0 0 0 0 Gage OK 69 38 76 46 / 0 0 0 0 Ponca City OK 67 37 72 49 / 0 0 0 0 Durant OK 64 42 70 50 / 0 0 0 0 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...Freeze Warning until 8 AM CDT this morning for OKZ004>048- 050>052. TX...FreezeWarning until 8 AM CDT this morning for TXZ083>090. && $$ NEAR TERM...09 SHORT TERM...09 LONG TERM....09 AVIATION...08