FXUS64 KOUN 041725 AFDOUN Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Norman OK 1225 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions are possible Monday afternoon across portions of western Oklahoma due to breezy, warm, and dry conditions. - Isolated severe thunderstorms possible Monday afternoon and evening. - Much cooler temperatures will arrive behind a cold front on Tuesday. && .NEAR TERM... (Through Monday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Two main concerns today will be elevated fire weather in northwest / western Oklahoma and a conditional risk for strong storms in southwest Oklahoma / western north Texas. Both will be driven largely by a dryline pushing into western / central Oklahoma. Fire Weather: In northwest Oklahoma, where fuels are still in the 75th to 89th percentile, elevated RFTIs will be largely driven by low RH values (low to mid teens). Winds will be a limiting factor with speeds in the 8-13 mph range expected. Increasing cirrus will also be a limiting factor. RFTIs will be higher in southwest Oklahoma under the axis of stronger winds (running from southwest Oklahoma into central Oklahoma). That said, greenup will be a limiting factor in this region. Storms: CAMs suggest a few isolated storms initiating off the dryline late this afternoon and evening, with the highest chances in southwest Oklahoma / north Texas. Environment looks to support elevated storms capable of damaging winds and large hail. Capping will be a limiting factor both in coverage and storm severity. Day && .SHORT TERM... (Monday night through Wednesday night) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 A cold front is forecast to enter northwest Oklahoma by midnight Monday night, approaching I-44 by dawn, and pushing into southeast Oklahoma by mid afternoon. This will bring both storm chances (southeast Oklahoma) and much colder temperatures. Cold: Tuesday's cold front will result in a strong temperature gradient across the forecast area, with highs in the 50s / 60s across northern Oklahoma to highs in the 70s / 80s across southern Oklahoma and north Texas. This gradient will continue Wednesday as westerly surface flow helps keep north Texas on the warm side. Northwest Oklahoma will have the potential to see frost or freezing temperatures Wednesday night. Latest NBM probs have us in the 30-50% ranges for reaching freezing temperatures. Storms: The front will serve as a focus for storms Tuesday afternoon as it enters southeast Oklahoma. The environment would support severe hazards. That said, there is a question whether storms initiate within our southeast counties or are limited to areas south and east of our forecast area. Additional showers and a few storms will be possible across northern Oklahoma Tuesday night into Wednesday as a shortwave moves across the central plains. Day && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Sunday) Issued at 145 AM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Synoptic uncertainty during the late week period remains high. In broad strokes, we're looking a mild Thursday followed by a warming trend into the weekend. Most models keep us dry Thursday through Saturday, but there are a few members that bring precipitation on Saturday (low chances). Day && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon May 4 2026 Very low probabilities of isolated severe thunderstorms exist late afternoon into the evening. If a storm develops, damaging wind gusts and large hail are possible. Due to strong capping inversion this afternoon, there is high uncertainty on whether storms develop and the location. LLWS will be a concern overnight into Tuesday morning, as well. A strong cold front moves into the area Tuesday morning bringing gusty north winds and a low potential of light drizzle for northern Oklahoma. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Oklahoma City OK 61 72 48 63 / 10 10 10 0 Hobart OK 61 74 46 70 / 10 10 0 0 Wichita Falls TX 69 86 52 76 / 10 0 0 0 Gage OK 50 64 40 55 / 0 10 30 20 Ponca City OK 55 65 46 58 / 30 20 30 10 Durant OK 71 89 55 72 / 10 10 30 20 && .OUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OK...None. TX...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...14 SHORT TERM...14 LONG TERM....14 AVIATION...01