FXUS64 KOHX 251039 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 539 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 539 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 - High rain chances (70-90%) begin Sunday with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected between Sunday and Thursday. Flooding is not a concern as this will bring relief to drought-stricken areas. - Temperatures will be warm today, but look for cooler-than- normal temperatures starting Monday. 5-10 degrees cooler-than- normal by mid-week! && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Some clouds, some stars out there at forecast time. Bottom line, it's pretty quiet out there. Temperatures have cooled into the 40s just about everywhere (it's a little warmer where the thicker clouds are across our southern counties) and with additional cloud cover expected to stream into the area through the rest of the night, I don't think we'll be dealing with any frost tonight. Tomorrow, if you don't have outdoor plans, you may want to rethink that. It's going to be a fantastic day with some sun and clouds and temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s across a majority of the mid-state. Here's the kicker -- it might be the warmest day we see in quite a while. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Saturday) Issued at 1032 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Big story for this forecast package is the rain finally returning to the area on Sunday. There are still some pretty big differences between global models regarding the arrival time of rain. In fact, I'd argue there's some significant differences between CAMs, as well. The HRRR is very slow in bringing showers into the area, with the bulk of the area remaining dry until the afternoon hours (rain focused well west of I-65 through the morning hours). The most recent RRFS solution shows something much more similar to what we've been seeing the last couple of nights and is really the way I'm leaning regarding timing. This means showers should start to cross the TN river shortly after sunrise and spread across I-65 before lunch time. Once rains arrive, they're gonna be around for bit. It could be Monday morning before we see much of a break and even then, scattered showers will be around. As far as thunder chances, it may not be until the evening hours Sunday when a few rumbles of thunder are heard as the upper low finally reaches the mid-state. The upper low should provide cool enough temperatures aloft for some elevated thunder. However, with us remaining well north of any true warm sector, no severe weather is expected. Models are in fairly good agreement right now regarding the rest of the week and that means a fairly active pattern for the first half of the week as a big upper low develops across the eastern half of the country. The trajectory of the center of this low will obviously play a large role in whether we see any thunder Tuesday or Wednesday, so my confidence in that is low right now. However, it does look like a wet few days. We will also be well below normal temperatures with Wednesday looking like the coolest day of the week -- we may not get out of the 50s! In the end, this pattern is going to go a long way in relieving our dry conditions across Middle TN as 1 to 2 inches (maybe even a few with as much as 2.5 inches) are expected area wide through Wednesday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 539 AM CDT Sat Oct 25 2025 VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hours. Calm winds this morning will pick up from the east-northeast by mid-morning, and continue that way through the TAF period as a weather system starts to move in from the west. No impacts from this system expected within this 24 hour period, but by Sunday morning, clouds shouldbegin lowering and we should start to see some rain during the daylight ours. Could have cig/vis impacts at that point, but not during this TAF cycle. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 74 52 67 52 / 0 10 50 80 Clarksville 72 51 65 51 / 0 20 60 80 Crossville 65 45 62 45 / 0 0 30 80 Columbia 74 52 64 51 / 0 10 70 80 Cookeville 68 49 65 49 / 0 10 30 80 Jamestown 65 46 63 46 / 0 10 20 80 Lawrenceburg 74 52 63 50 / 0 10 60 80 Murfreesboro 74 52 66 51 / 0 10 50 80 Waverly 73 52 62 50 / 0 20 80 80 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Husted