FXUS64 KOHX 242308 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 608 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - Very low rain chances (less than 10%) today and Saturday. - High rain chances (70-90%) begin Sunday with 1 to 2 inches of rain expected between Sunday and Thursday. Flooding is not a concern as this will bring relief to drought-stricken areas. - Temperatures will stay reasonably close to seasonal norms, but look for cooler-than-normal temperatures by the end of next week. && .UPDATE... Issued at 606 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Not much going on at update time. Plenty of cloud cover will help to keep things a little warmer tonight. We should see some more sun tomorrow and temperatures several degrees warmer than today, which will make for a fantastic fall day! && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Surface high pressure is in the process of shifting to the east of Middle Tennessee, bringing in warmer temperatures for tomorrow and also setting up our next active weather system. Indeed, we are already seeing some high cloudiness streaming into the region, so we won't experience full sunshine for quite awhile. Meanwhile, this morning's temperatures were the coldest we will see for the foreseeable future. Tonight's lows will be a few degrees warmer and frost is unlikely tomorrow morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 The next active weather system will begin spreading into Middle Tennessee late Saturday night, and especially Sunday and Sunday night as a low pressure system tracks along the Gulf Coast. A deep upper low will develop somewhat north of the surface low, so most of the moisture associated with this system will be on the north side of the surface low track -- a scenario that will directly impact Middle Tennessee. The heaviest rain for us is expected Sunday and Sunday night, with lower rain chances and lower QPF staying around for most of next week as the surface and upper air systems linger over the region. In the meantime, there is a low probability of convection Sunday and Sunday night owing to low levels of instability and interaction with a warm front that looks to develop over the mid state. Even so, the SPC only has Middle Tennessee outlooked for general thunderstorms on day 3. QPF values for the 24-hour period from 12Z Sunday until 12Z Monday range from about 1/2" to 1" across the mid state. QPF values for the next 7 days in total range from about 1-1/4" to just over 2". So rainfall during the upcoming week should be plentiful, but certainly not excessive. Given the persistent rain chances and cloud cover, diurnal temperature ranges from Sunday onward will be rather small, but temperatures will nonetheless cool down by the end of the week as we finally get a trough/frontal passage. Indeed, the 6-10 day outlook favors below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall across Middle Tennessee. The 8-14 day outlook favors continued below-normal temperatures with normal to below-normal rainfall. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1220 PM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions prevail this taf cycle with light easterly winds. Some oscillation in direction from easterly to southeasterly will occur Saturday morning. BKN to OVC sky coverage will be in place the entire period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 45 74 52 65 / 0 0 30 60 Clarksville 44 72 51 64 / 0 0 30 70 Crossville 38 65 45 59 / 0 0 10 50 Columbia 44 74 51 63 / 0 0 30 70 Cookeville 42 68 49 62 / 0 0 20 50 Jamestown 39 66 46 61 / 00 10 40 Lawrenceburg 43 73 51 61 / 0 0 30 70 Murfreesboro 43 74 51 64 / 0 0 20 60 Waverly 46 72 51 61 / 0 0 40 70 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ UPDATE.......Unger SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Baggett