FXUS64 KOHX 241610 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1110 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1048 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - Expect very low rain chances today and Saturday. - Medium to high rain chances will return to the mid state Sunday and Sunday night, with lesser rain chances lasting well into next week. - Temperatures the next few days will stay reasonably close to seasonal norms, but look for cooler-than-normal temperatures by the end of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Saturday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 Surface high pressure is in the process of shifting to the east of Middle Tennessee, bringing in warmer temperatures for tomorrow and also setting up our next active weather system. Indeed, we are already seeing some high cloudiness streaming into the region, so we won't experience full sunshine for quite awhile. Meanwhile, this morning's temperatures were the coldest we will see for the foreseeable future. Tonight's lows will be a few degrees warmer and frost is unlikely tomorrow morning. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday Night through next Friday) Issued at 1048 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 The next active weather system will begin spreading into Middle Tennessee late Saturday night, and especially Sunday and Sunday night as a low pressure system tracks along the Gulf Coast. A deep upper low will develop somewhat north of the surface low, so most of the moisture associated with this system will be on the north side of the surface low track -- a scenario that will directly impact Middle Tennessee. The heaviest rain for us is expected Sunday and Sunday night, with lower rain chances and lower QPF staying around for most of next week as the surface and upper air systems linger over the region. In the meantime, there is a low probability of convection Sunday and Sunday night owing to low levels of instability and interaction with a warm front that looks to develop over the mid state. Even so, the SPC only has Middle Tennessee outlooked for general thunderstorms on day 3. QPF values for the 24-hour period from 12Z Sunday until 12Z Monday range from about 1/2" to 1" across the mid state. QPF values for the next 7 days in total range from about 1-1/4" to just over 2". So rainfall during the upcoming week should be plentiful, but certainly not excessive. Given the persistent rain chances and cloud cover, diurnal temperature ranges from Sunday onward will be rather small, but temperatures will nonetheless cool down by the end of the week as we finally get a trough/frontal passage. Indeed, the 6-10 day outlook favors below-normal temperatures and above-normal rainfall across Middle Tennessee. The 8-14 day outlook favors continued below-normal temperatures with normal to below-normal rainfall. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 610 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 A surface ridge is more or less on top of Middle Tennessee this morning, so we can expect light/calm winds across the region the next 24 hrs. along with VFR wx (once the radiation fog at CKV dissipates, anyway). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 45 74 52 / 0 0 0 40 Clarksville 68 45 72 51 / 0 10 10 40 Crossville 61 39 65 46 / 0 0 10 20 Columbia 68 44 75 51 / 0 0 0 50 Cookeville 63 42 68 48 / 0 0 10 20 Jamestown 61 39 65 46 / 0 0 10 10 Lawrenceburg 68 43 73 51 / 0 0 0 50 Murfreesboro 68 44 73 51 / 0 0 0 40 Waverly 67 47 72 51 / 0 10 10 50 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rose LONG TERM....Rose AVIATION.....Rose