FXUS64 KOHX 240522 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 - High chance of widespread frost east of I-65 tonight with a few spots falling below freezing. Patchy frost west of I-65. - High chance rain will return to the mid state Sunday morning and continue into next week. QPF values Sunday to Wednesday range from about 1 to 2" across the region. - Low chance for a few rumbles of thunder on Sunday afternoon, but no severe weather is expected. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Saturday Night) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Autumn may have begun a month ago, but I think we can say fall has finally arrived as many families will find frost on their fritters from freezing temperatures first thing tomorrow morning. I don't think sub-freezing temperatures will be too widespread as most east of I-65 will fall into the mid 30s. As I mentioned earlier, these will be the coldest temperatures we've seen since mid-April. In the end, because of no precip, these temperatures will be inconsequential, but an extra layer may be necessary as the kids head out in the morning. We've got a couple more great fall days ahead of us before the rain returns Sunday, with highs around 70 degrees both tomorrow and Saturday with some sun and clouds. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday through next Friday) Issued at 1024 PM CDT Thu Oct 23 2025 Speaking of the rain, models continue to depict a high chance of rain arrival on Sunday. Timing looks a little earlier than we were seeing last night. Pretty much across the board, it looks like showers should begin to arrive at the TN River shortly after sunrise Sunday and spread across the area through the remainder of the morning. Forecast soundings continue to be unimpressive in regards to severe weather, especially with boundary layer winds out of the east (warm front south of us). However, with the proximity of the upper low, mid-level lapse rates are showing to be a little better than the last few model runs. At best, this means we could see some elevated thunder, especially during the afternoon and early evening hours. Sunday will begin what looks to be an active few days of weather across the mid-state. No severe weather, but at least medium rain chances will persist through mid-week as a well-amplified upper level low develops over the eastern half of the country. Good news is, this stuff should get out of here well before trick or treat time on Friday. However, if it verifies, this upper low will usher in temperatures 8-10 degrees below normal for the second half of the week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1222 AM CDT Fri Oct 24 2025 VFR conditions for the TAF period at all sites. Winds will be from the NE around 5 knots with clear skies. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 68 46 72 51 / 0 0 0 20 Clarksville 68 45 70 51 / 0 0 0 20 Crossville 62 39 65 44 / 0 0 0 10 Columbia 68 45 74 51 / 0 0 0 20 Cookeville 63 42 67 48 / 0 0 0 10 Jamestown 61 40 65 46 / 0 0 0 10 Lawrenceburg 67 44 73 50 / 0 0 0 20 Murfreesboro 68 45 73 50 / 0 0 0 10 Waverly 67 48 70 51 / 0 0 0 30 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Unger LONG TERM....Unger AVIATION.....Holley