FXUS64 KOHX 211621

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

1121 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1107 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



- Middle Tennessee will get to enjoy a very warm weekend with

  near-record high temperatures, especially on Sunday.



- There are low rain and storm chances (<40%) Saturday afternoon 

  and evening, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau.



- There are additional low rain chances at times throughout the

  upcoming week along with continued above-normal temperatures. 

  There is little chance for any hazardous weather. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Rest of today through Sunday)

Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



A strong surface high remains anchored over The Gulf this

afternoon, while a weak surface boundary sits just to our north.

The surface boundary is gradually rotating clockwise around the

periphery of the surface high and is expected to dip into East

Tennessee later today, so there are low rain and storm chances 

this afternoon and evening, mainly along the Cumberland Plateau. 

Elsewhere, we can look forward to abundant sunshine today and 

again tomorrow as temperatures continue to climb to near record 

values, especially on Sunday. 



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Sunday Night through next Saturday)

Issued at 1107 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



Sunday night, a southeastward-moving cold front will slip through

Middle Tennesse, perhaps bringing a spotty shower or two to the

mid state, but also dropping our temperatures closer to seasonal

normals for one whole day before we start to warm right back up. 

Next week, high pressure will dominate our weather pattern most 

of the time, although we will also undergo persistent moisture 

advection, which may interact with a shortwave or two to produce 

mainly low rain chances, especially from mid-week onward. Overall,

7-day QPF totals are anemic, with most of Middle Tennessee 

remaining rain-free, while some areas mainly east of I-65 can 

expect to pick up a few hundredths of an inch of rain along the 

way. There is very little chance for any hazardous weather for at 

least the next week.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 609 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Southwesterly winds

will occasionally be gusty to 15 to 20 knots through this 

afternoon. Isolated thunderstorms this afternoon will favor the 

Plateau, and a PROB30 group remains for CSV. Gusty winds will 

diminish after sunset.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      85  62  86  53 /  10  10   0  10 

Clarksville    86  63  87  48 /  10   0   0  10 

Crossville     78  59  80  53 /  30  20   0  20 

Columbia       86  61  84  53 /  10   0   0  10 

Cookeville     80  60  81  53 /  20  20   0  30 

Jamestown      78  58  81  50 /  30  20   0  50 

Lawrenceburg   84  60  84  55 /  10   0   0  10 

Murfreesboro   85  61  85  55 /  10  10   0  10 

Waverly        85  63  85  48 /  10   0   0  10 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Rose

LONG TERM....Rose

AVIATION.....Clements