FXUS64 KOHX 211042

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

542 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 541 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



- Monday will still be hot, but heat index values should stay

  below 105 degrees.



- Low to medium storm chances will develop Monday and Tuesday,

  mainly for areas east and south of Nashville. There is a low

  chance for strong thunderstorm winds Monday.



- Major heat relief is on the way with temperatures falling near

  normal levels by Wednesday.



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Tuesday Night)

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



High pressure that has helped bring about the record warmth of the

past several days is finally starting to loosen up. Temperatures

were still quite hot today, but not quite as hot as on previous 

days, and heat indices tomorrow are expected to remain below heat 

advisory criteria. We have gladly allowed the advisory to expire.

Tomorrow, we do expect some rain and storm development, mainly in

areas to the east and south of Nashville, as a surface trough 

develops across Middle Tennessee. This will provide some focusing 

for convective development, and will also allow for cooler 

temperatures to finally spread into Middle Tennessee. Indeed, the 

contrast from tomorrow to Tuesday will be remarkable. Rain and 

storm chances will continue on Tuesday across the same areas, then

look for an upper trough to come through and push everything off 

to the east.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Wednesday through next Monday)

Issued at 1014 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2026



Our rain and storm chances will greatly diminish after Tuesday,

with maybe come lingering chances along the Cumberland Plateau on

Wednesday, then we can expect more dry weather for the remainder

of the week and through the weekend. The cooler weather pattern

will hold through the weekend before temperatures start to creep

back up, but nothing close to the extreme heat we've just come

through.



&&



.AVIATION...

(12Z TAFS)

Issued at 541 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2026



VFR conditions prevail this morning aside from patchy fog at SRB 

which will clear out around 13Z. Scattered thunderstorms are 

expected to develop this afternoon and evening. Latest guidance 

shows storms favoring areas east and south of BNA. Because of this, 

removed the PROB30 group at CKV as confidence in storms there as 

decreased, but PROB30 groups have been maintained for the other TAF 

sites. Storm coverage diminishes between 03Z and 05Z as winds 

then turn northerly. Low stratus and patchy fog then look to 

develop after 06Z, bringing MVFR to IFR conditions.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      97  69  87  65 /  50  60  50  10 

Clarksville    96  68  86  62 /  20  20  20   0 

Crossville     88  64  82  61 /  40  50  80  50 

Columbia       98  68  91  65 /  30  50  40  10 

Cookeville     91  67  83  64 /  40  60  50  30 

Jamestown      88  65  81  62 /  30  60  60  40 

Lawrenceburg   96  67  89  64 /  30  50  50  10 

Murfreesboro   97  68  90  65 /  40  60  40  10 

Waverly        94  68  86  64 /  10  30  10   0 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Rose

LONG TERM....Rose

AVIATION.....Clements