FXUS64 KOHX 210522

AFDOHX



Area Forecast Discussion

National Weather Service Nashville TN

1222 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



...New AVIATION...



.KEY MESSAGES...

Updated at 1215 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



- Warm weekend with near-record high temperatures.



- Low shower and storm chance (<30%) Saturday afternoon and evening.



- Low shower and storm chance Sunday evening followed by cooler

  (still above-normal) temperatures next week. 



&&



.SHORT TERM...

(Tonight through Sunday Night)

Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



A warm weekend is ahead with high temperatures flirting with

record values across Middle Tennessee. Normal highs are in the

60s while we'll feel summer-like warmth with highs in the 80s and

southwesterly winds.



Outside of temperatures, there's actually continued low chances

for rain/storms this weekend. The first will be Saturday afternoon

into evening as a shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft moves

across the area interacting with a weak surface front. Hi-res

guidance continues to show isolated convection firing off in the

late afternoon and evening, though most activity is favoring 

eastern TN into the Carolinas. A brief strong storm cannot be 

ruled out across the Plateau into the early evening, but overall 

coverage continues to support PoPs <30%. A strong wind gust or

small hail could occur with the strongest storms.



A more substantial system and cold front is expected to move

across the area Sunday night into Monday. An elongated cold front

will move from south to north bringing chances for showers and

perhaps a storm before cold advection occurs Monday morning.



&&



.LONG TERM...

(Monday through next Saturday)

Issued at 1020 PM CDT Fri Mar 20 2026



While we'll experience cooler weather early to mid next week

behind Monday's cold front, we'll technically remain above-normal

with a warming trend through at least Thursday. There will be 

come-and-go rain chances through the upcoming work week as 

additional shortwave disturbances ripple through the persistent 

northwest flow pattern.



&&



.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFS)

Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sat Mar 21 2026



VFR conditions prevail. Cloud coverage will increase overnight as

a weak cold front approaches the area. Southwesterly winds 

sustained between 6 to 8 kts overnight will increase after 15Z to 

9 to 10 kts with gusts up to 20 kts. Low chance for an isolated 

shower at CSV this afternoon; PROB30 has been added in the taf. 

Any activity that develops will be isolated and looks to remain 

east of all other middle TN terminals.



&&



.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

Nashville      85  61  87  53 /  10  10   0  20 

Clarksville    85  62  87  47 /  10  10  10  30 

Crossville     77  58  81  53 /  30  20   0  20 

Columbia       85  60  86  53 /  10  10   0  10 

Cookeville     79  60  81  53 /  20  20   0  30 

Jamestown      77  58  81  49 /  30  30   0  30 

Lawrenceburg   84  60  85  54 /  10  10   0  10 

Murfreesboro   85  60  86  54 /  10  10   0  20 

Waverly        84  63  85  48 /  10   0   0  20 



&&



.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

None.

&&



$$



SHORT TERM...Sizemore

LONG TERM....Sizemore

AVIATION.....Baggett