FXUS64 KOHX 201136 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 636 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 636 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 - Low to medium rain/storm chances on Wednesday, with best chances south and east during the afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - More seasonal temperatures expected through this weekend with low rain chances. - Temperatures below-normal forecast early to mid next week with a much drier air mass. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Thursday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Middle Tennessee is currently situated amidst a positively-tilted upper-level trough that stretches generally from Texas through the Great Lakes. A weak surface front is also approaching from the north and is currently maintaining isolated to scattered showers and t-storms across Kentucky and Tennessee despite decreased instability. This activity will persist overnight into the early morning hours. With afternoon heating, another band of showers and t-storms should blossom near the front. Rain chances are best for areas south/southeast today with northerly flow bringing drier air in across the northern counties. Highs will still be somewhat hot, but nowhere near the values achieved on Tuesday (we nearly tied the record at BNA). With continued progression of the front, more stable, cooler conditions are expected for Thursday with no mentionable rain chances at this time. We'll find lows in the 60s, to near 70, Thursday night. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1145 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Fair weather is forecast to persist into this weekend with upper- level ridging remaining in place across the Southwest and the trough across the East. We'll enjoy lower humidity values and seasonal temperatures each day, and there's little to no rain/storm chances for areas west of the Plateau. Ensemble/NBM guidance continues to paint low chances for the higher terrain, but there's low confidence this will pan out. Either way, eyes are directing toward a more substantial upper-level disturbance dipping down with the Polar jet on Sunday. This will be accompanied by a cold front moving through the region by Monday morning, though it's not carrying much chance for rain due to limited pre-frontal moisture. Thus, our first "taste of Fall" is set to arrive early next week with temperatures well below normal appearing likely. Lows in 50s are forecast Tuesday and Wednesday mornings, with highs in the 70s and 80s. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 636 AM CDT Wed Aug 20 2025 VFR conditions at most TAF sites through the period, with the only changes being wind direction oscillating around 360 degrees give or take 30 degrees. CSV and SRB could see lower ceilings and vsbys starting around 9z Thursday, as it has been for the past few weeks it seems. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 94 71 90 70 / 40 10 0 0 Clarksville 92 68 89 67 / 20 0 0 0 Crossville 85 66 83 65 / 70 20 10 0 Columbia 93 69 89 68 / 60 20 0 0 Cookeville 88 67 85 66 / 50 10 10 0 Jamestown 86 66 83 64 / 60 20 10 0 Lawrenceburg 92 68 88 66 / 60 20 10 0 Murfreesboro 94 69 89 67 / 50 10 0 0 Waverly 91 67 88 66 / 30 0 0 0 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Sizemore LONG TERM....Sizemore AVIATION.....Holley