FXUS64 KOHX 192319 AFDOHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Nashville TN 619 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 - Dangerous heat continues this afternoon with heat indices ranging from 105 to 110 degrees west of the Cumberland Plateau. Temperatures begin a decline on Wednesday. - Rain chances return across the far west and northwest this afternoon with low to medium rain chances continuing tonight through Wednesday afternoon. Thunderstorms may produce heavy rain, gusty winds, and frequent lightning. - Temperatures near-normal are forecast mid to late week, with even cooler weather favored into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Wednesday) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 High pressure continues its dominance over the area today, resulting in one more day of dangerous heat. Readings this morning are already nearing 90, and heat indices will be brutal west of the Plateau with feels-like temperatures generally ranging from 105 to 110. CAMs and ensemble guidance are in poor agreement regarding thunderstorm development this afternoon ahead of an approaching front with some suggesting scattered activity and others keeping the area completely dry. Do think that the environment is favorable enough to support at least isolated storms across the northwest this afternoon. Weak shear and poor mid-level lapse rates will keep the severe weather threat very low, but a brief strong storm could be capable of gusty winds and heavy downpours. The aforementioned front pushes south through the area late tonight and into early Wednesday. This front will keep a 20-40% chance for rain and thunderstorms across most of the area tonight. As the front continues to push south, northerly winds and drier air settle in behind it, focusing Wednesday afternoon's storms mainly along and south of I-40 and across the Plateau. Thanks to this cooler air, this heat wave will finally break with Wednesday's high temperatures reaching into the low-90s. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday Night through next Tuesday) Issued at 1033 AM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 Drier and cooler northerly flow continues Thursday and through the weekend. This helps keep high temperatures in the upper-80s to mid-90s each day. Most of the area should even remain dry with only 20-40% storm chances being maintained in the forecast, mainly across the far south and along the Plateau where enough moisture will still reside. And then the real pattern change everyone is waiting for finally arrives. A large upper-level trough tracks through the Great Lakes/southern Canada area, sending a stronger front south through the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys early next week. High temperatures will cool off into the low and mid-80s with morning lows in the 50s to low-60s. Even more, dewpoints will only be in the 50s as well giving us an early taste of fall! && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 615 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 A line of showers and thunderstorms with heavy rain is currently over KCKV. This line will work east over the next 3 hours and gradually weaken as it does, there is about a 30% chance that scattered storms make it to the Nashville area. Mainly VFR conditions overnight with just a low chance of lingering showers early in the night. There will also be a low chance of MVFR patchy fog for KCSV and KSRB between 09 and 13z. Scattered thunderstorms develop south and east of Nashville after 18z. Light northerly winds under 5 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Nashville 75 94 71 90 / 30 50 10 10 Clarksville 73 92 68 89 / 50 30 10 10 Crossville 69 86 66 84 / 10 70 20 30 Columbia 73 94 70 90 / 20 60 20 10 Cookeville 71 88 6784 / 20 60 10 20 Jamestown 69 86 65 84 / 10 60 10 20 Lawrenceburg 72 93 69 89 / 20 60 20 20 Murfreesboro 73 94 70 89 / 20 60 10 20 Waverly 72 92 68 89 / 50 40 10 10 && .OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TNZ005>009-023>030- 056>062-075-093>095. && $$ SHORT TERM...Clements LONG TERM....Clements AVIATION.....Mueller